Forecasting zero : U.S. nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament / Jonathan Pearl.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Pearl, Jonathan

Contributor:

Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Nuclear disarmament--United States--History.

Nuclear disarmament.

Nuclear disarmament--International cooperation.

Nuclear weapons--United States--History.

Nuclear weapons.

Nuclear nonproliferation--Government policy--United States.

Nuclear nonproliferation.

Nuclear nonproliferation--International cooperation.

Nuclear nonproliferation--Government policy.

United States.

Genre:

History

Physical Description:

1 online resource (x, 57 pages)

Other Title:

U.S. nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament

United States nuclear history and the low probability of disarmament

Place of Publication:

Carlisle, Pa. : Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2011]

Summary:

A vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and political factors related to abolition, may be the most serious one of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age, the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy remains uncertain. The general approach advanced today in U.S. policy circles largely hews, after all, to the logic of the past 65 years: arms control and nonproliferation now, disarmament at an undetermined time in the future. Moreover, several conceptual and strategic barriers continue to block serious progress toward U.S. disarmament. By situating the current pro-disarmament rhetoric in this larger historical and strategic context, this monograph argues that there is reason to doubt whether the current push for disarmament will produce meaningful and lasting results.

Contents:

American abolitionism : new trick or old pony? (1945-91). Limited dissent for a wartime project

Shaping the post-war world

Three important shifts move the United States away from disarmament

From Kennedy to Carter : the rise of arms control

A Reagan-era rebirth for disarmament

Shaping a new world order, or shaped by it? : from Reykjavik to rogue states. New risks and uncertain priorities in the post-Cold War world (1991-2001)

Disarmament continues its retreat (2001-09)

A new center or a return to normalcy? : the four horsemen ride to town

Forecasting the U.S. nuclear future : yes we can (eventually?). The Obama administration : pledges and actions

Continuity, not revolution

Guarding your optimism : conceptual roadblocks to disarmament

Guarding your optimism : structural roadblocks to disarmament

Conclusion.

Notes:

Title from title screen (viewed on Dec. 9, 2011).

"November 2011."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 41-57).

Other Format:

Print version: Pearl, Jonathan. Forecasting zero.

ISBN:

158487516X

9781584875161

OCLC:

767886415