Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations / Gregory Aftandilian.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Aftandilian, Gregory L.

Contributor:

Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute

Series:

External Research Associates Program monographs

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Mubārak, Muḥammad Ḥusnī, 1928-2020.

Mubārak, Muḥammad Ḥusnī.

Elections--Egypt.

Elections.

Egypt--Politics and government.

Egypt.

Political campaigns--Egypt.

Political campaigns.

Political parties--Egypt.

Political parties.

National security--United States.

National security.

United States--Foreign relations--Egypt.

United States.

Egypt--Foreign relations--United States.

Diplomatic relations.

Politics and government.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (x, 48 pages).

Place of Publication:

Carlisle, PA : Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2011]

Summary:

Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are no longer viable--for example, President Mubarak is now on trial for complicity in the deaths of protesters during the uprising that resulted in his ouster from power--other scenarios remain plausible, particularly given what we see as the more prominent role of the Egyptian military in this fluid political situation. In addition, some of the possible presidential successors that the author mentions have now risen to higher positions in the Egyptian government. The author also discusses the sensitive issue of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most organized opposition group that is opposed to many U.S. policies. He examines a scenario of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, but notes that this is unlikely to occur unless both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian military split apart.

Introduction -- The power structure in Egypt -- Constitutional rules, changes and procedures -- Succession scenarios through legal mechanisms -- Extra-legal scenario successions -- How would these scenarios impact U.S.-Egyptian relations? -- Legal succession scenarios -- Extra-legal scenarios -- Policy recommendations. How should U.S. officials conduct themselves in these scenarios?

Contents:

Summary

Introduction

The power structure in Egypt

Constitutional rules, changes and procedures

Succession scenarios through legal mechanisms

Extra-legal scenario successions

How would these scenarios impact U.S.-Egyptian relations?

Legal succession scenarios

Extra-legal scenarios

Policy recommendations. How should U.S. officials conduct themselves in these scenarios?

Notes:

Title from PDF title page (viewed on Oct. 11, 2011).

"September 2011."

"External Research Associates Program monograph."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 43-48).

Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2011.

Other Format:

Print version: Aftandilian, Gregory L. Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations.

Online version: Aftandilian, Gregory L. Presidential succession scenarios in Egypt and their impact on U.S.-Egyptian strategic relations.

ISBN:

1584875062

9781584875062

OCLC:

756701340

Access Restriction:

Use copy Restrictions unspecified