Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive? / Paul Cashin, Samya Beidas-Strom.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Cashin, Paul.

Contributor:

Beidas, S. (Samya)

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2011/195

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Balance of payments.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (83 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2011.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Employing a dynamic panel regression, this study estimates the medium-term current account position for three subgroups of emerging market and developing countries with shared economic characteristics. The fundamental determinants of the macroeconomic balance approach to current account determination (arising from the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate (CGER)) are augmented by determinants relevant to Middle Eastern economies' current account positions. The study also assesses the deviation of the actual medium-term current account position of three Middle Eastern subgroups of countries (emerging markets; low-income and fragile economies; and net oil exporters) from their medium-term current account norms. Key findings are that: augmentation of the fundamental determinants yields plausible Middle Eastern current account norms; and in comparison with the medium-term current account norm, the actual and projected current account imbalances of each of the three subgroups are typically not excessive.

Contents:

Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Survey of the Empirical Literature; 1. Determinants of the Current Account: Coefficients of the Empirical Literature; III. Econometric Estimation; A. Methodology and Data; B. Estimation Results; 2A. Current Account-GMM Estimation and Implied Norms: Net Oil Exporters; 2B. Current Account-GMM Estimation and Implied Norms: EMEs and LIFEs; C. Calculating Current Account Norms, Contributions and Divergence from the Steady State; 1A. Middle Eastern Medium-Term Current Account Norms: Net Oil Exporters

1B. Middle Eastern Medium-Term Current Account Norms: EMEs and LIFEs2A. Middle Eastern Current Account Norms and Contributions: Oil Exporters, 1996-2016; 2B. Middle Eastern Current Account Norms and Contributions: EMEs, 1990-2016; 2C. Middle Eastern Current Account Norms and Contributions: LIFEs, 2000-16; 3A. Estimated Middle Eastern Current Account Norms (Smoothed): Oil Exporters, 1996-2016; 3B. Estimated Middle Eastern Current Account Norms (Smoothed): EMEs, 1990-2016; 3C. Estimated Middle Eastern Current Account Norms (Smoothed): LIFEs, 2000-16; D. Robustness of Results

4. Comparison of Middle Eastern Current Account Forecasting Models, 2011-16IV. Conclusions and Policy Implications; A.1. Determinants of Current Account Imbalances: Expected Signs and Correlations of the Empirical Literature; A.2. Alternative Determinants of the Current Account-GMM Estimates; A.3. Current Account-GMM Regression Estimates (1989-2009, four-year average); A.4. Projected and Estimated Middle Eastern Current Account Norms: All Specifications, 2011-16; A.5. Comparison of Robustness of Current Account Norm Forecasts, 2007-09

A.6. Alternative Comparison of Robustness of Current Account Norm Forecasts, 2007-09References; Footnotes

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed September 25, 2014).

ISBN:

9786613876430

9781463900373

1463900376

9781463901424

1463901429

9781283563987

1283563983

9781463901394

1463901399