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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- International Monetary Fund.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/150
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Fiscal policy--China--Hong Kong.
- Fiscal policy.
- Budget--Forecasting--China--Hong Kong.
- Budget.
- Risk management--China--Hong Kong.
- Risk management.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (21 p.)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- Hong Kong SAR's government faces the dual challenges of volatile revenue and medium term spending pressures arising from a rapidly aging population. Age-related spending pressures raise long-run sustainability concerns, while revenue volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After describing the risks associated with aging, the paper uses value at risk techniques to measure the value of the unanticipated risks posed by volatile revenue. The paper also describes the self-insurance value of Hong Kong SAR's traditionally high fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility.
- Contents:
- Contents; I. Introduction; II. Anticipated Risks: Age-Related Fiscal Pressures; III. Unanticipated Risks: Revenue Volatility; A. How Volatile is Hong Kong SAR's Revenue?; Box; 1. Fiscal Policy in Volatile Environments; B. How Large Are Fiscal Risks?; Figures; 1. Cumulative Fiscal Value at Risk Estimates; 2. Fiscal Value at Risk Density Functions; IV. Can Policy Choices Limit Fiscal Risks?; A. Introduction of a GST; B. Fixed Investment Returns; V. Conclusion; Appendix: Methodological Issues; References
- Notes:
- "July 2007."
- Includes bibliographical references.
- Description based on print version record.
- ISBN:
- 9786613828460
- 9781462315468
- 1462315461
- 9781452709758
- 1452709750
- 9781283516013
- 1283516012
- 9781451911671
- 145191167X
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