Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers : The Germany-Central European Supply Chain / Selim Elekdag, Dirk Muir.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Elekdag, Selim.

Contributor:

Muir, Dirk.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/210

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

European Union countries--Economic integration--Congresses.

European Union countries.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (30 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.

Contents:

""Cover""; ""Contents""; ""Abstract""; ""I. Introduction""; ""II. Model""; ""A. Overview""; ""B. Calibration""; ""III. Results""; ""A. Spillovers: How Has the Supply Chain Changed Them?""; ""Aggregate Demand Shocks""; ""Fiscal Stimulus Shocks""; ""Financial Shocks""; ""Summary""; ""B. Spillovers: What if German Balance Sheets Were More Fragile?""; ""Summary""; ""IV. Concluding Remarks""; ""References""; ""Appendix""; ""Tables""; ""1. Summary of the Trade Matrix: 1996 versus 2011""; ""Figures""; ""1. A Two-Country Representation of the GIMF Model""; ""2. Aggregate Demand Shock""

""3. Fiscal Stimulus Shock""""4. Corporate Spread Shock""; ""5. The Role of Balance Sheets: Debt-to-GDP Ratios Across Sectors""; ""6. Selected European Economies: Sovereign Debt and Yields""; ""7. Lending Spreads in Italy and Spain Relative to Germany""; ""8. Aggregate Demand Shock""; ""9. Robustness: Aggregate Demand Shock""

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed May 28, 2014).

ISBN:

9781484325421

1484325427

9781484327111

148432711X

9781484330685

1484330684

OCLC:

867928125