U.S. Revenue Surprises : Are Happy Days Here to Stay? / Koshy Mathai, Andrew Swiston, Martin Mühleisen.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Mathai, Koshy.

Contributor:

Mühleisen, Martin.

Swiston, Andrew.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2007/143

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Taxation--United States.

Taxation.

Tax administration and procedure--United States.

Tax administration and procedure.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (31 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

A key question for U.S. policymakers is whether the recent strength in federal revenue is likely to continue. This question is addressed through an econometric analysis of the determinants of tax revenue, using time series that are adjusted for tax policy changes. The results suggest that growth in corporate profits and capital gains each contributed forty percent of the increase in the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 2004-2006, and rising income inequality explains much of the rest. While part of the revenue rise is the result of structural changes taking place in the U.S. economy, some of the recent buoyancy is likely to prove temporary, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of these variables.

Contents:

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Tax Revenue Changes: Base Growth versus Policy Changes; A. A Stylized Tax Revenue Model; B. Time Series Analysis; Figures; 1. Actual and Adjusted Tax Revenue; III. Constructing Adjusted Revenue Series; A. A Practical Approach; B. Revenue Adjustments; C. Stylized Facts; 2. Constant Tax System Revenue; IV. Long-run Equations and Short-run Dynamics; 3. Tax Base Growth and Tax Revenue Elasticity; Tables; 1. Correlations Between Revenue Elasticity and the Tax Base; A. The Estimation Approach; B. Results for Overall Tax Revenue

2. Total Tax Revenue: Long-Run and Short-Run ElasticitiesC. Results by Sub-Category; 3. Individual Income Tax Revenue: Long-Run and Short-Run Elasticities; 4. Corporate Income Tax Revenue: Long-Run and Short-Run Elasticities; 5. Social Insurance Tax Revenue: Long-Run and Short-Run Elasticities; V. Where Has Revenue Been and Where is it Headed?; A. A Model Performance; 4. Fitted Values and Residuals From Long-Run Equations; 5. Fitted Values and Residuals From Short-Run Equations; B. Decomposing the Recent Surge in Revenue; 6. Corporate Profits and Capital Gains

6. Correlations Between Residuals, 1987-20067. Scenario Results: Total Revenue; C. Outlook; 8. Contribution to Revenue Increase 2004-2006; VI. Conclusions; 7. Scenario Parameters; References; Appendix; I. Data and Programs

Notes:

"June 2007."

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786613830081

9781462353811

1462353819

9781452758190

1452758190

9781283517638

1283517639

9781451911602

1451911602