Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation / Ghada Fayad, Roberto Perrelli.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Fayad, Ghada.

Contributor:

Perrelli, Roberto.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/173

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic assistance--Developing countries--Econometric models.

Economic assistance.

Economic development--Developing countries--Econometric models.

Economic development.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (25 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.

Contents:

Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. G20: Cumulative Growth Surprises, 2012-13; II. A Brief Review of the Literature; III. Growth Momentum: EM V-shaped Recovery and Synchronized Slowdowns; A. Post-Lehman V-shaped Recovery; 2. Emerging Markets Recovery from Global Financial Crisis; B. Synchronized Slowdowns; 3. Incidence of Deceleration Spells in Emerging Markets; 4. WEO Revisions to Real GDP Growth; IV. Estimating EM Growth Surprises Post-Global Financial Crisis; 5. Output Gap Estimates Based on Pre-crisis Period Versus Full Sample Period

6. Factors Contributing to EM Growth Surprises, 2011-13Tables; 1. Determinants of Growth Surprises in Emerging Market Economies, 2011-13; V. Explaining EM Synchronized Slowdowns Post-Global Financial Crisis; 2. Determinants of Slowdowns in Emerging Market Economies, 2011-13; 7. Factors Contributing to EM Growth Slowdowns, 2011-13; 8. Trading Partners'' Import Demand Volumes, 2011-13; 9. Change in Fiscal Impetus, 2011-13; A. Cross-country heterogeneity; B. China; 10.Decomposition of Sources of Slowdowns by Country, 2011-13; 3. Decomposing Trading Partners' Contribution to Slowdowns, 2011-13

4. Determinants of EM Growth Pre-Global Financial Crisis, 2000-07VI. Concluding Remarks; References

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed October 17, 2014).

ISBN:

9781498344005

1498344003

9781498366731

1498366732

9781498332880

1498332889