The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World: A GVAR Model Approach / Mauricio Vargas, Daniela Hess.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Vargas, Mauricio.

Contributor:

Hess, Daniela.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2019/256

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

International economic relations.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (37 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2019.

Summary:

Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.

Contents:

Cover

Contents

Abstract

I. Introduction

II. Stylized Facts

III. Methodology and Data

IV. Results

A. Oil price spillovers to ECCU countries

B. The Potential Impact of an Expansionary Policy Stance in the U.S.

V. Conclusions and Policy Implications.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781513522296

1513522299

9781513522302

1513522302

OCLC:

1145592010