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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China / Mali Chivakul, Waikei Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, Wojciech Maliszewski, Alfred Schipke.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Chivakul, Mali.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2015/084
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Housing--Prices--China.
- International Monetary Fund.
- Residential real estate--China.
- Supply and demand.
- Local Subjects:
- Housing--Prices--China.
- International Monetary Fund.
- Residential real estate--China.
- Supply and demand.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (53 p.)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2015.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.
- Contents:
- Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Figures; Tables; Annex; I. Introduction; II. Recent Developments: What Are Various Datasets Saying?; 1. Property Prices are Moderating; 2. Residential Real Estate Sales Have Slowed; 3. Real Estate: A Buildup of Inventory; III. Demand and Supply Dynamics; A. Real Estate Demand; 1. Regression Estimates of Residential Real Estate Demand; B. Measuring Oversupply; IV. Real Estate Adjustment-A Scenario Analysis; A. Scenario Analysis of Gradual Adjustments; B. Growth Impact across Scenarios; 4. Baseline Scenario Analysis on Real Estate Adjustment
- 2. Regression of Real Estate Investment3. Impact on Real Estate GFCF and Economic Growth; C. Scenario Analysis and Growth Impact at the Provincial Level; V. Conclusion; Background on China's Residential Real Estate Statistics; Annex: Background on China's Residential Real Estate Statistics; References; Footnotes
- Notes:
- Description based upon print version of record.
- Description based on print version record.
- ISBN:
- 9781484337271
- 1484337271
- 9781484337257
- 1484337255
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