The Global Financial Crisis : An Anatomy of Global Growth / Troy Matheson.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Matheson, Troy.

Contributor:

International Monetary Fund.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/076

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.

Financial crises.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (41 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A dynamic factor model is used to decompose each country’s growth into contributions from global, regional, and idiosyncratic shocks. We find a high degree of global synchronization over 1990 to 2011, particularly across advanced economies. Examining the period around the global financial crisis, we find global shocks had large and widespread effects on growth, with more diversity in growth experiences in the early part of the recovery. In a recursive experiment, we find rising global growth synchronization just prior to the crisis, largely resulting from a shift in the importance of global shocks between countries. In contrast, the crisis period caused a much more widespread increase in growth synchronization, and was followed by a similarly pervasive decrease in synchronization in the early recovery.

Contents:

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. A Model of Global Growth; B. Modeling Annual Variables; C. Aggregation Equations; D. Methodological Limitations; III. Estimation; IV. Data; V. Results, 1990-2011; A. Variance Decompositions; B. Historical Shock Decompositions; Tables; 1 Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Annual Growth (quarters ahead), 1990-2011; Figures; 1 Historical Shock Decompositions, Annual Growth; VI. A Recursive Experiment; A. Forecast Evaluation; B. How Have the Factors Driving Growth Changed?; 2 Forecasting Performance, Annual Growth, 2005Q4-2011Q4

2 Recursive Variance Decompositions, Annual Growth3 Change in Importance of Global Shocks; 4 Change in Total Synchronization; VII. Summary and Conclusion; References; Appendices; I. Variance Decompositions and Forecasting Performance, Annual Growth, 1990-2011; II. Historical Shock Decompositions, Annual Growth; 5 Historical Shock Decompositions, Advanced Europe; 6 Historical Shock Decompositions, Advanced Europe (cont.); 7 Historical Shock Decompositions, Emerging Europe; 8 Historical Shock Decompositions, Commonwealth of Independent States; 9 Historical Shock Decompositions, Asia

10 Historical Shock Decompositions, Asia (cont.)11 Historical Shock Decompositions, Asia (cont.); 12 Historical Shock Decompositions,Western Hemisphere; 13 Historical Shock Decompositions,Western Hemisphere (cont.); 14 Historical Shock Decompositions,Western Hemisphere (cont.); 15 Historical Shock Decompositions, Sub-Saharan Africa; 16 Historical Shock Decompositions, Sub-Saharan Africa (cont.); 17 Historical Shock Decompositions, Sub-Saharan Africa (cont.); 18 Historical Shock Decompositions, Middle East and North Africa

19 Historical Shock Decompositions, Middle East and North Africa (cont.)

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781484359747

1484359747

9781484309018

1484309014

9781484326787

1484326784