Guinea : Selected Issues.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Series:

IMF Staff Country Reports; Country Report ; No. 2016/262

IMF Staff Country Reports

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic development.

Economic development--Guinea.

Fiscal policy--Guinea.

Fiscal policy.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (47 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2016.

Summary:

This Selected Issues paper presents the results of the application of the Debt, Investment, and Growth model to the case of Guinea. The model application allows simulation of the macroeconomic implications of scaled-up investment on growth, fiscal policy, and debt sustainability. A scenario analysis comparing the results under different investment paths is also presented. The results suggest that Guinea stands to benefit substantially from scaled-up public investment. Model-based estimates suggest that the GDP per capita benefits from the authorities’ public infrastructure program could be in the vicinity of 2–4 percent. However, ensuring that the expected growth and poverty reduction gains are realized requires the implementation of an accompanying fiscal strategy to preserve macroeconomic stability.

Contents:

Cover; CONTENTS; DEBT, INVESTMENT AND GROWTH IN GUINEA; A. Introduction; B. Public Investment in Guinea; C. A Model-Based Debt Sustainability Analysis: Main Features and Calibration; D. Scenario Analysis; E. Elements of Fiscal Adjustment Strategy; F. Concluding Remarks; BOX; 1. Enhancing the Efficiency of Public Investment; FIGURES; 1. Public Investment in Guinea: Comparison Between the Projections of the Last Article IV (2012) and Outcomes ; 2. Total Public Debt Across Scenarios; 3. Unconstrained Tax Adjustment; 4. Tax Adjustment and External Commercial Debt

5. Tax Adjustment and Domestic Debt6. First Alternative Scenario Under Different Financing Options; 7. The Importance of Structural Factors; 8. Non-resource Revenue (Excluding Grants); 9. Guinea and Comparable Countries: Recent Evolution of Main Expenditure Items; TABLES; 1. Costs and Funding of the Post-Ebola Priority Action Plan by Sector; 2. Calibration Parameters; 3. Growth and Private Investment Dividends from Different Investment and Financing Options ; REVENUE NEEDS, TAX POTENTIAL AND REVENUE MOBILIZATION IN GUINEA; A. Introduction; B. Determining the Revenue Target

C. Guinea's Recent Revenue PerformanceD. Revenue Mobilization and the Tax Potential in Guinea; E. Main Results; F. Mobilizing Revenue: Issues and Policy Recommendations; FIGURES; 1. GDP per Capita in Selected Sub-Saharan Countries, (2000-14); 2. Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa; 3. Base Scenario; 4. Alternative Scenario; 5. Tax and Non-tax Revenue in a Selection of African Countries; 6. Tax Structure in Guinea and Comparable Countries; 7. Evolution of the Tax Structure; 8. Tax Potential - Direct Taxes; 9. Tax Potential - Indirect Taxes; 10. Revenue by Collection Agency; TABLES

1. Main Explanatory Factors Considered in the Literature2. Regressors Used for this Study; 3. Estimation Results by Type of Tax; REFERENCES; FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCLUSION IN GUINEA; A. Introduction; B. Financial Sector Development and Access in Guinea; C. Country Specific Barriers to Financial Inclusion; D. Current Initiatives; E. Potential New Areas of Focus; FIGURES; 1. Financial Sector Depth and Development, 2013; 2. Mobile Banking, 2014; 3. Reasons for Not Having a Bank Account; 4. GDP per Capita, 2013; 5. Return on Equity, 2011; 6. Interest Rate Spreads, 2014

7. Urban Population, 2014TABLES; 1. Financial Sector Overview; 2. Financial Access Indicators; REFERENCES

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed September 11, 2016).

ISBN:

9781475521597

1475521596

9781475521719

1475521715