Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets / Era Dabla-Norris, Raphael Espinoza, Sarwat Jahan.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Dabla-Norris, Era.

Contributor:

Espinoza, Raphael.

Jahan, Sarwat.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/049

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

International economic integration--Econometric models.

International economic integration.

Economic development--Econometric models.

Economic development.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (29 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.

Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Linkages between EMs and LICs; A. Trade Linkages; Tables; 1. EM Leaders' Export Shares from LICs; Figures; 1. Share of LIC Exports by Destination; 2. Top Ten Ranking of LICs based on Exports Share to Regional Leaders, 2008; 2. Exports Shares from all LICs, by Products and Destination Income Group; 3. Exports Shares from LICs, by Product and Destination; B. Other Linkages; 4. Remittance Flows to LICs, 2006; 3. Top Recipients of Chinese FDI; 5. EM Leaders Stock of FDI in LICs; 6. Consolidated Foreign Claims of Reporting Banks by Region, 2006-09

C. Is There Evidence of Decoupling and Coupling?III. Analytical Findings; A.VAR Analysis; 4. LICs Correlation with other Economies; 7. GDP Rare by Income Groups, 1995-2008; 8. Impact of External Shocks on LICs Growth (Annual VAR); 5. Elasticity of LIC Domestic Growth to External Growth; 9. Contributions to Variations in Growth in LIC Regions; B.Panel Regressions; 6. Baseline Regressions for EMs and LICs; 7. Regressions by LIC region, Exporter-type; 8. Robustness Check: Global Variables; IV. Simulation; 9. The Downside: GPM Projections fof Real GDP Growth; V. Conclusion

10. Simulation Results from a Global Double-Dip RecessionReferences; Appendixes; A. List of Countries; B. Data and Sources

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed June 15, 2014).

ISBN:

9781463944964

1463944969

9781463944957

1463944950