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Global Monetary Tightening : Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises / Julio Escolano, Christina Kolerus, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Escolano, Julio.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/215
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Debts, Public--Developing countries.
- Debts, Public.
- Monetary policy--United States.
- Monetary policy.
- Budget deficits--Developing countries.
- Budget deficits.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (29 p.)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014.
- Summary:
- This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
- Contents:
- Cover; Abstract; Table of Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. U.S. Long-Term Bond Yields and Public Debt Dynamics; A. Impact on Interest Rate Growth Differentials; Figures; 1. U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields, EM Interest Rates and IRGDs (1995-2013); Tables; 1. Impact of U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields on EM IRGDs by Region; 2. Impact of U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields on EM Interest Rates; 3. Impact of U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields on EM IRGDs-Fiscal Control; 4. Impact of U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields on EM IRGDs-Financial, Institutional, and External Control Variables
- 2. The Impact on IRGDs by Region at Different Levels of Global Risk Aversion3. Impact of Fiscal Fundamentals on IRGDs by Region; B. Public Debt Dynamics; IV. U.S. Monetary Tightening and the Frequency of Fiscal Crises in Emerging Economies; 4. Impact of a Permanent Increase in U.S. 10-Year Bond Yields on Public Debt; 5. U.S. Monetary Policy and the Frequency of Sovereign Debt Crises in EMS; 6. U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycles; 7. U.S. Monetary Policy Tightening and Frequency of Sovereign Debt Crises in EMS; V. Conclusion and Policy Implications; Appendix Tables; References
- Notes:
- Description based upon print version of record.
- Includes bibliographical references.
- Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed March 4, 2015).
- ISBN:
- 9781498328814
- 1498328814
- 9781498307024
- 1498307027
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