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IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries: Fragile versus Non-Fragile States / Kaihao Cai, Edouard Martin, Felix Vardy.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Cai, Kaihao.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2024/221
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (60 pages)
- Other Title:
- IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2024.
- Summary:
- This paper examines the macroeconomic frameworks of IMF-supported programs with low-income countries from 2009 to 2022, focusing on how macroeconomic targets and their achievement differ between fragile and conflicted-affected states (FCS) and non-FCS. Key findings include similar program targets for FCS and non-FCS, optimism in all dimensions considered other than inflation, and no significant correlation between targets and outcomes. For variables other than inflation, country-independent targets equal to the mean or median outcomes of other programs outperform program projections as predictors of actual outcomes. This underscores the challenges in setting realistic, country and program-specific targets in IMF-supported programs with low-income countries. Finally, we discuss potential caveats, including GDP rebenchmarking, non-linear relationship between initial conditions and targets, and repeat programs. We do not study, and make no claims about, causality.
- Notes:
- Description based on print version record.
- ISBN:
- 9798400291128
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