How countries go broke : the big cycle / Ray Dalio.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Dalio, Ray, 1949- author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Debts, Public.

Business cycles.

Financial crises.

Physical Description:

388 pages : color illustrations ; 24 cm

Edition:

First Avid Reader Press hardcover edition.

Place of Publication:

New York : Avid Reader Press, 2025.

Summary:

"Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke--and what would that look like? For decades, politicians, policymakers, and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010-12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the 'Big Debt Cycle.' Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors, and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio's model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan, and China face today. How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces--political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods, and pandemics), and technological (most importantly, AI)--that together are causing what Dalio calls the 'Overall Big Cycle' changes in the world order. By reading this book, you will improve your understanding of what's happening now and what to do about it"-- Provided by publisher.

Contents:

Introduction

Part I Overview of the big debt cycle. The big debt cycle in a tiny nutshell ; The mechanics and concepts ; The mechanics in numbers and equations

Part II The archetypical sequence leading to central governments and centrals banks going broke. The archetypical sequence ; The private sector and central government debt crisis (stages 1-4) ; The crisis spills over to the central bank (stages 5-6) ; The prior big debt crisis recedes, a new equilibrium is reached, and a new cycle can begin (stages 7-9) ; The overall big cycle

Part III Looking back. From 1865 to 1945 in a tiny nutshell ; A brief review of the big debt cycle from 1945 to now ; 1945 to 1971

a linked (i.e., hard) monetary system ; 1971 to 2008

a flat money, interest-rate-driven monetary policy ; 2008-2020

fiat money and debt monetization ; Since 2020

pandemic and big fiscal deficits monetized ; China's big cycle from 1945-49 until now in a tiny nutshell ; The Japanese case and the lessons it provides

Part IV Looking ahead. What my indicators show ; My 3% 3-part solution ; What the future looks like to me.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9781501124068

1501124064

OCLC:

1521308016