Inevitable surprises : thinking ahead in a time of turbulence / Peter Schwartz.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Schwartz, Peter, 1946-

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Strategic planning.

Business forecasting.

Technological innovations.

Organizational change.

Crisis management.

Physical Description:

vii, 247 pages ; 24 cm

Place of Publication:

New York : Gotham Books, ©2003.

Summary:

One of America's foremost prognosticators and author of the bestseller and management classic The Art of the Long View discusses the big surprises ahead, the resulting scenarios that are creating the future of our world, and what they will mean for you and your business. The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. At times it seems that the only constant we can rely on is change itself-and what the future will bring appears to be anybody's guess. But Peter Schwartz, one of the most visionary scenario planners of our time, believes the future is taking shape around us now, and that by taking a closer look at the changes in action today, we can predict what the world of tomorrow will be like. With Inevitable Surprises, Schwartz offers a provocative look at the forces that are dramatically reshaping our world-and shows what we can do to plan ahead for our society, our businesses, and ourselves. Each chapter takes a predetermined new reality that we will soon face-including regenerative medicine, global climate change, an aging population in the West, and the rise of terrorism-and offers critical foresight for the coming decades. Ultimately, Schwartz brings his analyses of these developments together to offer three overarching scenarios that are possible directions for world history in the coming years, and outlines the implications for each. Timely, thought-provoking, and endlessly fascinating, Peter Schwartz's Inevitable Surprises is a book no one in business-or anyone with an interest in the future-can afford to miss.--Publisher description.

Contents:

Chapter 1 Inevitable Surprises 1

Chapter 2 A World Integrated with Elders 19

Chapter 3 The Great Flood of People 47

Chapter 4 The Return of the Long Boom 71

Chapter 5 The Thoroughly New World Order 99

Chapter 6 A Catalog of Disorder 129

Chapter 7 Breakthroughs in Breaking Through: Science and Technology 161

Chapter 8 A Cleaner, Deadlier World 185

Chapter 9 Inevitable Stratgeties 217.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 237-242).

ISBN:

1592400272

9781592400270

1592400698

9781592400690

OCLC:

52030804

Online:

Contributor biographical information

Publisher description