1 option
Unpleasant Surprises : Sovereign Default Determinants and Prospects / Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo
- Series:
- Policy research working papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress.
- Currencies and Exchange Rates.
- Debt.
- Debt management.
- Debt Markets.
- Default probabilities.
- Developing country.
- Economic Theory & Research.
- Emerging economies.
- Emerging market.
- Emerging market countries.
- External Debt.
- Finance and Financial Sector Development.
- Financial crisis.
- Fiscal policy.
- Foreign financing.
- Indebtedness.
- International bank.
- International Economics and Trade.
- Level of debt.
- Macroeconomic stability.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Monetary fund.
- Reserves.
- Sovereign debt.
- Sovereign default.
- Sovereign defaults.
- Local Subjects:
- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress.
- Currencies and Exchange Rates.
- Debt.
- Debt management.
- Debt Markets.
- Default probabilities.
- Developing country.
- Economic Theory & Research.
- Emerging economies.
- Emerging market.
- Emerging market countries.
- External Debt.
- Finance and Financial Sector Development.
- Financial crisis.
- Fiscal policy.
- Foreign financing.
- Indebtedness.
- International bank.
- International Economics and Trade.
- Level of debt.
- Macroeconomic stability.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Monetary fund.
- Reserves.
- Sovereign debt.
- Sovereign default.
- Sovereign defaults.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (19 pages)
- Other Title:
- Unpleasant Surprises
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2010
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- This paper uses model averaging techniques to identify robust predictors of sovereign default episodes on a pooled database for 46 emerging economies over the period 1980-2004. Sovereign default episodes are defined according to Standard and Poor's or by non-concessional International Monetary Fund loans in excess of 100 percent of the country's quota. The authors find that, in addition to the level of indebtedness, the quality of policies and institutions is the best predictor of default episodes in emerging market countries with relatively low levels of external debt. For emerging market countries with a higher level of debt, macroeconomic stability plays a robust role in explaining differences in default probabilities. The paper provides evidence that model averaging can improve out-of-sample prediction of sovereign defaults, and draws policy conclusions for the current crisis based on the results.
The Penn Libraries is committed to describing library materials using current, accurate, and responsible language. If you discover outdated or inaccurate language, please fill out this feedback form to report it and suggest alternative language.