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Vulnerability of Bangladesh To Cyclones in A Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost / Huq, Mainul
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Huq, Mainul
- Series:
- Policy research working papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Afforestation.
- Atmospheric pressure.
- Climate.
- Climate change.
- Climate Change Economics.
- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases.
- Concentrates.
- Condensation.
- Cyclones.
- Environment.
- Global climate change.
- Global Environment Facility.
- Global warming.
- Hazard Risk Management.
- Hurricanes.
- IPCC.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Oceans.
- Precipitation.
- Rainfall.
- Science and Technology Development.
- Science of Climate Change.
- Storms.
- Surface temperature.
- Tropical cyclones.
- Upper atmosphere.
- Urban Development.
- Wind.
- Wind speed.
- Local Subjects:
- Afforestation.
- Atmospheric pressure.
- Climate.
- Climate change.
- Climate Change Economics.
- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases.
- Concentrates.
- Condensation.
- Cyclones.
- Environment.
- Global climate change.
- Global Environment Facility.
- Global warming.
- Hazard Risk Management.
- Hurricanes.
- IPCC.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Oceans.
- Precipitation.
- Rainfall.
- Science and Technology Development.
- Science of Climate Change.
- Storms.
- Surface temperature.
- Tropical cyclones.
- Upper atmosphere.
- Urban Development.
- Wind.
- Wind speed.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (54 pages)
- Other Title:
- Vulnerability Of Bangladesh To Cyclones In A Changing Climate
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2010
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than USD 2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than USD 50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures.
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