Global Economic Prospects, January 2023 / World Bank Group, issuing body.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

World Bank Group Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Global Practice Group, author, issuing body.

Contributor:

World Bank Group, issuing body.

Series:

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--Developing countries.

Economic forecasting.

International economic relations.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (198 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : The World Bank, [2023]

Summary:

Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title Page

Acknowledgments

Copyright Page

Summary of Contents

Table of Contents

Foreword

Executive Summary

Abbreviations

Chapter 1 Global Outlook

Summary

Global context

Global trade

Commodity markets

Global inflation

Financial developments

Major economies: Recent developments and outlook

Advanced economies

China

Emerging market and developing economies

Recent developments

Outlook

Global outlook and risks

Global outlook

Risks to the outlook

Policy challenges

Key global challenges

Challenges in emerging market and developing economies

References

Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific

Risks

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chapter 3 Investment Growth after the Pandemic

Introduction

Evolution of investment growth

Macroeconomic backdrop

Empirical analysis of investment growth

Investment prospects

Implications of weak investment growth

Policies to promote investment growth

Fiscal policy

Structural policy

Conclusion

Annex 3.1 Determinants of investment growth: Empirical framework

Annex 3.2 Investment growth and reforms

Chapter 4 Small States: Overlapping Crises, Multiple Challenges

Characteristics of small states

Economic impact of overlapping crises

The COVID-19 pandemic

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation, and global monetary policy tightening

Prospects for recovery

Risks.

External financing shocks

Inflation

Global downturn

Climate change and natural disasters

Policy priorities

Domestic policies

Policy support from the global community

Statistical Appendix

Data and Forecast Conventions

Selected Topics

Boxes

Boxes 1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks

1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries

Figures

1.1 Global prospects

1.2 Global risks and policy challenges

1.3 Global trade

1.4 Commodity markets

1.5 Global inflation and financial developments

1.6 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook

1.7 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies

B1.1.1 Regional outlooks

B1.1.2 Regional risks

1.8 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies

B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments

B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks

1.9 Per capita income growth

1.10 Global outlook

1.11 Risks to the outlook

1.12 Alternative downside scenarios

1.13 Global policy challenges

1.14 Monetary policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies

1.15 Fiscal policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies

1.16 Structural policy challenges in emerging market and developing economies

2.1.1 China: Recent developments

2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments

2.1.3 EAP: Outlook

2.1.4 EAP: Risks

2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments

2.2.2 ECA: Outlook

2.2.3 ECA: Risks

2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments

2.3.2 LAC: Outlook

2.3.3 LAC: Risks

2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments

2.4.2 MNA: Outlook

2.4.3 MNA: Risks

2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments

2.5.2 SAR: Outlook

2.5.3 SAR: Risks

2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments

2.6.2 SSA: Outlook

2.6.3 SSA: Risks

3.1 Investment growth

3.2 Private and public investment growth.

3.3 Investment around global recessions

3.4 Terms of trade and investment growth

3.5 Credit growth, debt, and investment growth

3.6 Estimated contribution of explanatory variables to predicted investment growth

3.7 Investment growth outlook

3.8 Investment compared to trend

3.9 Slowdown in growth of investment and trade

3.10 Growth of investment, productivity, and potential output

3.11 Infrastructure spending needs related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

3.12 Investment growth around reform spurts and setbacks in EMDEs

4.1 Growth and income in small states

4.2 Features of small states

4.3 Output and trade characteristics of small states

4.4 Fiscal positions of small states

4.5 External financing of small states

4.6 Growth in small states during the past two decades

4.7 The COVID-19 pandemic in small states

4.8 Economic effects of the war in Ukraine

4.9 Prospects for recovery

4.10 External financing risks

4.11 Climate change and natural disasters

4.12 Policies to reduce vulnerability to global price shocks

Tables

1.1 Real GDP

B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts

1.2 Emerging market and developing economies

2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary

2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts

2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary

2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts

2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary

2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts

2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary

2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts

2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary

2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts

2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary

2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts

3.1 Investment sample

A3.1.1 Correlates of investment growth.

A3.1.2 Correlates of investment growth robustness

A3.2.1 Investment growth around investment climate reform spurts and setbacks

4.1 EMDE small states, by type

4.2 Real GDP for EMDE small states.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Description based on print version record.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN:

9781464819506

1464819505

OCLC:

1371140913

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-1906-3