1 option
Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains : Some Facts, Many Questions / Constantinescu, Cristina.
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Constantinescu, Cristina.
- Series:
- Policy research working papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Economic Policy.
- Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance.
- Global Value Chain.
- Global Value Chains and Business Clustering.
- International Economics and Trade.
- International Trade and Trade Rules.
- Investment and Investment Climate.
- Investment Climate.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Policy Uncertainty.
- Private Sector Development.
- Trade.
- Trade Growth.
- Trade Policy.
- Local Subjects:
- Economic Policy.
- Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance.
- Global Value Chain.
- Global Value Chains and Business Clustering.
- International Economics and Trade.
- International Trade and Trade Rules.
- Investment and Investment Climate.
- Investment Climate.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Policy Uncertainty.
- Private Sector Development.
- Trade.
- Trade Growth.
- Trade Policy.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (20 pages)
- Other Title:
- Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2019.
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- This paper attempts to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty on overall trade and trade linked to global value chains. Using new data on policy uncertainty for 18 countries and 24 years, it finds a statistically significant negative impact of policy uncertainty on overall trade growth. A 1 percent increase in uncertainty is associated with a 0.02 percentage point reduction in the growth of goods and services trade, implying that the increase in policy uncertainty since mid-2018 may have caused a 1 percentage point decline in world trade growth. The paper also finds that the impact of policy uncertainty on trade linked to global value chains is similar to overall trade. This is likely to be the result of two opposing forces: global value chains are more dependent on relation-specific investments that are sensitive to policy uncertainty, but these investments also make trade patterns sticky. More research and better data are needed to disentangle these different effects empirically.
The Penn Libraries is committed to describing library materials using current, accurate, and responsible language. If you discover outdated or inaccurate language, please fill out this feedback form to report it and suggest alternative language.