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Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic / Justin-Damien Guenette.
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Guenette, Justin-Damien.
- Series:
- Policy research working papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Business Cycle.
- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies.
- Coronavirus.
- COVID-19.
- Disease Control and Prevention.
- Econometric Model.
- Economic Forecasting.
- Economic Shock.
- Health, Nutrition and Population.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Pandemic Impact.
- Local Subjects:
- Business Cycle.
- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies.
- Coronavirus.
- COVID-19.
- Disease Control and Prevention.
- Econometric Model.
- Economic Forecasting.
- Economic Shock.
- Health, Nutrition and Population.
- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth.
- Pandemic Impact.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (21 pages)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2021.
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery's strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes.
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