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Breaking the Waves ? : Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence ? / Barakat, Bilal
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Barakat, Bilal
- Series:
- Policy research working papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Access and Equity in Basic Education.
- Adolescent Health.
- Armed Conflict.
- Civil War.
- Economic demography.
- Economic growth.
- Economic progress.
- Education.
- Educational attainment.
- Fertility.
- Health, Nutrition and Population.
- Mortality.
- Peace.
- Policy Research.
- Population Policies.
- Primary Education.
- Progress.
- Secondary education.
- Social Development.
- Sustainable Development.
- UNFPA.
- United Nations Population Fund.
- Young male.
- Young men.
- Young people.
- Youth and Government.
- Local Subjects:
- Access and Equity in Basic Education.
- Adolescent Health.
- Armed Conflict.
- Civil War.
- Economic demography.
- Economic growth.
- Economic progress.
- Education.
- Educational attainment.
- Fertility.
- Health, Nutrition and Population.
- Mortality.
- Peace.
- Policy Research.
- Population Policies.
- Primary Education.
- Progress.
- Secondary education.
- Social Development.
- Sustainable Development.
- UNFPA.
- United Nations Population Fund.
- Young male.
- Young men.
- Young people.
- Youth and Government.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (40 pages)
- Other Title:
- Breaking the Waves ?
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2009
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- Much of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as "youth bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion.
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