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Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees / Lilia Razlog.
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository (formerly "World Bank E-Library Publications") Available online
View online- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Razlog, Lilia.
- Series:
- Other papers.
- World Bank e-Library.
- Other papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Debt Management.
- Debt Markets.
- External Debt.
- Finance and Financial Sector Development.
- Public Finance.
- Public Sector Development.
- Local Subjects:
- Debt Management.
- Debt Markets.
- External Debt.
- Finance and Financial Sector Development.
- Public Finance.
- Public Sector Development.
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2020.
- System Details:
- data file
- Summary:
- Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends the method to assess the combined loss of multiple guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative economic conditions.
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