Global Economic Prospects, June 2022 / World Bank Group.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

World Bank Group, author, issuing body.

Series:

World Bank Group flagship report.

World Bank Group flagship report

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--Developing countries.

Economic forecasting.

Economic policy.

Economics.

International economic relations.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xix, 150 pages) : illustrations.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022.

Summary:

The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The war has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. Among them is, in particular, the possibility of stubbornly high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth, reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s. This could eventually result in a sharp tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies to rein in inflation, lead to surging borrowing costs, and possibly culminate in financial stress in some emerging market and developing economies. A forceful and wide-ranging policy response is required by policy makers and the global community to boost growth, bolster macroeconomic frameworks, reduce financial vulnerabilities, provide support to the vulnerable population groups, and attenuate the long-term impacts of the global shocks of recent years.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title Page

Copyright Page

Summary of Contents

Contents

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Executive Summary

Abbreviations

Chapter 1 Global Outlook

Summary

Global Context

Global Trade

Commodity Markets

Global Inflation

Financial Developments

Major Economies: Recent Developments and Outlook

Advanced Economies

China

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Recent Developments

Outlook

Global outlook and risks

Global Outlook

Risks to The Outlook

Growth Under Alternative Downside Scenarios

Policy Challenges Key Global Challenges

Challenges in Advanced Economies

Challenges in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

References

Special Focus 1 Global Stagflation

Introduction

Evolution of Inflation

Evolution of Growth

Echoes of The Stagflation of The 1970s?

Similarities to The 1970s

Differences from The 1970s

End of Stagflation of The 1970s and Lessons for today

Aftermath of High Inflation in The 1970s

Implications for The 2020s

Structural Forces of Disinflation

Challenges for EMDEs

Policy Options for EMDEs Annex SF1.1 Methodology: Decomposing Inflation

Annex SF1.2 Methodology: Estimating Potential Growth

Special Focus 2 Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Energy Markets and Activity

Comparison With Previous Energy Shocks

Lessons from Previous Energy Shocks

Implications for The Global Economy

Channels

Impact on Global Activity

Policy Implications

Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific

Risks

Europe and Central Asia

Risks Latin America and The Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Statistical Appendix

Data and Forecast Conventions

Selected Topics

Boxes

1.1 Regional Perspectives: Outlook and Risks

1.2 Recent Developments and Outlook for Low-Income Countries

Figures

1.1 Global Prospects

1.2 Global Risks and Policy Challenges

1.3 Global Trade 1.4 Commodity Markets

1.5 Global Inflation and Financial Developments

1.6 Major Economies: Recent Developments and Outlook

1.7 Recent Developments in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

B 1.1.1 Regional Outlook

B1.1.2 Regional Risks

1.8 Outlook in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

1.9 Per Capita Income in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

1.10 Global Outlook

B1.2.1 LICs: Recent Developments

B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and Risks

1.11 Intensifying Geopolitical Tensions

1.12 Stagflation.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-1843-1