Global Economic Prospects, January 2024.

Format:

Book

Series:

Global Economic Prospects Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

International economic relations.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (229 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2024]

Summary:

This World Bank Group flagship report, 'Global Economic Prospects, January 2024', provides an in-depth analysis of the global economic outlook, focusing on regional perspectives, the impact of global trade dynamics, commodity markets, and inflation trends. It examines the economic developments of major economies, including advanced, emerging, and low-income countries. The report also explores investment accelerations, fiscal policy challenges in commodity-exporting countries, and the implications of procyclical fiscal policies on growth. Aimed at policymakers, economists, and researchers, the report offers insights into economic risks, policy challenges, and strategies for fostering economic growth and stability. Generated by AI.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title Page

Copyright Page

Summary of Contents

Contents

Acknowledgments

Foreword

Executive Summary

Abbreviations

Chapter 1 Global Outlook

Summary

Global context

Global trade

Commodity markets

Global inflation

Global financial developments

Major economies: Recent developments and outlook

Advanced economies

China

Emerging market and developing economies

Recent developments

EMDE outlook

LICs outlook

Per capita income growth

Global outlook and risks

Summary of global outlook

Risks to the outlook

Policy challenges

Key global challenges

Challenges in emerging market and developing economies

References

Chapter 2 Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific

Outlook

Risks

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chapter 3 The Magic of Investment Accelerations

Introduction

Contributions

Main findings

Database and identification methodology

Database

Identification methodology

Features of investment accelerations

Number of accelerations

Distribution of accelerations over time and across countries

Amplitude and duration of accelerations

Correlates of investment accelerations

Output growth and its underlying channels

Other macroeconomic and financial correlates

Development outcomes

Drivers of investment accelerations

Initial conditions

Macroeconomic policies and structural reforms

Institutional quality

Robustness.

Policies to start investment accelerations

Fiscal and monetary policies

Structural policies

Interventions at the micro level

Designing a policy package

Conclusion

Annex 3.1 Identification of investment accelerations

Annex 3.2 Methodological annex

Annex 3.3 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms

Annex 3.4 Robustness exercises

Chapter 4 Fiscal Policy in Commodity Exporters: An Enduring Challenge

Fiscal policy procyclicality

Conceptual definitions

Determinants of fiscal procyclicality

Fiscal policy volatility

Basic features of fiscal policy volatility

Determinants of fiscal volatility

Implications of fiscal policy volatility for growth

Links between procyclicality and volatility

Fiscal institutions and frameworks

Fiscal rules

Sovereign wealth funds

Medium-term expenditure frameworks

Institutional quality and governance

Conclusions

Annex 4.1 Determinants of fiscal procyclicality

Annex 4.2 Linkages between fiscal policy volatility and economic growth

Annex 4.3 Additional tables

Statistical Appendix

Data and Forecast Conventions

Selected Topics

Boxes

1.1 Regional perspectives: Outlook and risks

1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries

3.1 Sparking investment accelerations: Lessons from country case studies

4.1 How does procyclical fiscal policy affect output growth?

4.2 Do fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds make a difference? Lessons from country case studies

Figures

1.1 Global economic prospects

1.2 Global economic prospects (continued)

1.3 Global trade

1.4 Commodity markets

1.5 Global inflation

1.6 Global financial developments

1.7 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook.

B1.1.1 Regional outlooks

B1.1.2 Regional risks

1.8 Recent developments in emerging market and developing economies

1.9 Outlook in emerging market and developing economies

B1.2.1 LICs: Recent developments

B1.2.2 LICs: Outlook and risks

1.10 Per capita income growth

1.11 Global outlook

1.12 Risks to the outlook

1.13 Risks to the outlook (continued)

1.14 Growth outcomes under alternative scenarios

1.15 Global policy challenges

1.16 EMDE monetary policy challenges

1.17 EMDE fiscal policy challenges

1.18 EMDE structural policy challenges

2.1.1 China: Recent developments

2.1.2 EAP excluding China: Recent developments

2.1.3 EAP: Outlook

2.1.4 EAP: Risks

2.2.1 ECA: Recent developments

2.2.2 ECA: Outlook

2.2.3 ECA: Risks

2.3.1 LAC: Recent developments

2.3.2 LAC: Outlook

2.3.3 LAC: Risks

2.4.1 MNA: Recent developments

2.4.2 MNA: Outlook

2.4.3 MNA: Risks

2.5.1 SAR: Recent developments

2.5.2 SAR: Outlook

2.5.3 SAR: Risks

2.6.1 SSA: Recent developments

2.6.2 SSA: Outlook

2.6.3 SSA: Risks

3.1 Evolution of investment growth

3.2 Frequency of investment accelerations

3.3 Investment growth during accelerations

3.4 Public versus private investment during investment accelerations

3.5 Growth of output during investment accelerations

3.6 Contributions to GDP growth during investment accelerations

3.7 Total factor productivity growth, employment growth, and sectoral shifts around investment accelerations

3.8 Macroeconomic indicators around investment accelerations

3.9 Development outcomes during investment accelerations

3.10 Initial conditions and the start of investment accelerations

3.11 Policy improvements and the start of investment accelerations

3.12 Enabling factors for investment accelerations.

3.13 Policy packages and potential growth

B3.1.1 Investment accelerations in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia

B3.1.2 Investment accelerations in Poland and Türkiye

B3.1.3 Investment accelerations in Colombia and Uruguay

B3.1.4 Investment accelerations in Chile and Morocco

B3.1.5 Investment accelerations in India and Uganda

4.1 Commodities: Price volatility and importance for exports and revenues

4.2 Procyclicality of government expenditures

4.3 Fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic factors in commodity exporters

4.4 Fiscal procyclicality, fiscal rules, and institutional factors

B4.1.1 The amplification effect of procyclical fiscal policy on output

4.5 Fiscal policy volatility

4.6 Exchange rate regimes and capital account openness

4.7 Fiscal policy volatility and procyclicality

4.8 Fiscal volatility, growth, and fiscal frameworks

B4.2.1 Fiscal rules, fiscal expenditures, and SWFs in commodity exporters

B4.2.2 Fiscal expenditures and SWFs in Chile, Botswana, and Timor-Leste

B4.2.3 Institutional quality and fiscal procyclicality

Tables

1.1 Real GDP

B1.2.1 Low-income country forecasts

1.2 Emerging market and developing economies

2.1.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary

2.1.2 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts

2.2.1 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary

2.2.2 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts

2.3.1 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary

2.3.2 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts

2.4.1 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary

2.4.2 Middle East and North Africa economy forecasts

2.5.1 South Asia forecast summary

2.5.2 South Asia country forecasts

2.6.1 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary

2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts.

B3.1.1 Investment and output growth during and outside investment accelerations

B3.1.2 Economic indicators during and outside investment accelerations

B3.1.3 Policy changes and reforms during investment accelerations

A3.1.1 Investment accelerations: Distribution over country groups

A3.1.2 List of investment accelerations in EMDEs

A3.2.1 Institutional quality and initial conditions as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations

A3.2.2 Institutional quality and policies as drivers of the likelihood of investment accelerations

A3.3.1 Investment accelerations using different filtering algorithms

A3.4.1 Investment accelerations using different duration parameters

A3.4.2 Investment accelerations using different duration and growth parameters

A3.4.3 Baseline regressions with additional controls

A3.4.4 Baseline regressions based on investment growth (not in per capita terms)

A4.1.1 Drivers of fiscal procyclicality

A4.1.2 Institutional drivers of fiscal procyclicality

A4.1.3 Output growth and commodity prices

A4.1.4 Government spending and commodity prices

A4.2.1 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility: Cross-sectional regressions

A4.2.2 Determinants of fiscal policy volatility

by type of commodity

A4.2.3 Effects of fiscal policy volatility on GDP per capita growth

A4.3.1 List of economies for analysis of fiscal procyclicality and volatility

A4.3.2 Variables for analysis of fiscal procyclicality

A4.3.3 Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Part of the metadata in this record was created by AI, based on the text of the resource.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781464820182

146482018X

OCLC:

1423134233