Implications of Emerging Technology for UK Space Regulation Policy: Findings of a Horizon Scan

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Black, James

Contributor:

Lebret, Melusine

Ogden, Theodora

Skelton, Andy

Van Soest, Henri

Wolford, Zsofia

Language:

English

Other Title:

Implications of Emerging Technology for UK Space Regulation Policy

Place of Publication:

RAND Corporation 2024

Summary:

Governments, economies and societies worldwide are increasingly dependent on space for positioning, navigation, timing (PNT), satellite communications (SATCOM), Earth observation (EO) and meteorological services. The size of the space sector is growing rapidly, in part through the emergence of major private actors (e.g., SpaceX, Blue Origin, etc.) and the so-called NewSpace economy. Increased competition and innovation have driven down launch costs per kilogram of mass, while also promoting miniaturisation and better performance of satellites and their onboard components. These trends, in turn, are making it both technically and financially feasible to unlock new use cases and applications from space technology. At the same time, space experts and policy makers have raised concern about the increasingly 'congested, contested, and competitive' nature of the space domain. This report summarises the findings of a RAND Europe study into the intersection of key emerging technologies with the space domain, both now and out to 2040. This was undertaken in support of a review by the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, and the Regulatory Horizons Council, into the future of space regulation policy. The study considers the implications of projected future technology trends for the development of novel space capabilities and applications, both in upstream and downstream markets – while acknowledging that the pace, direction and wider externalities of such developments will also be shaped by non-technological factors, including regulation. This report investigates the possible use cases and implications of technologies such as AI, autonomy and robotics, telecommunications, quantum, engineering biology, semiconductors, energy and propulsion, novel materials, and advanced manufacturing. This study aims to illustrate the sorts of trade-offs and dilemmas that technology may pose for future space regulation policy, as the UK seeks to strike a balance between mitigating risk and, at the same time, maximising opportunity (e.g., to deliver broad societal and economic benefits and support delivery of other policy goals through promotion of a vibrant and competitive space sector).