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Has trust in the U.S. intelligence community eroded? : examining the relationship between policymakers and intelligence providers / Christopher Dictus [and 6 others].
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Dictus, Christopher, author.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Intelligence service--United States--Evaluation.
- Intelligence service.
- Intelligence service--Political aspects--United States.
- Military intelligence--United States.
- Military intelligence.
- Civil-military relations--United States.
- Civil-military relations.
- Crime prevention--United States.
- Crime prevention.
- Civilian Military Workforce.
- Crime and Violence Prevention.
- Intelligence Analysis.
- Intelligence Collection.
- Threat Assessment.
- United States--Politics and government.
- United States.
- Local Subjects:
- Civilian Military Workforce.
- Crime and Violence Prevention.
- Intelligence Analysis.
- Intelligence Collection.
- Threat Assessment.
- Place of Publication:
- RAND Corporation 2024
- Summary:
- Over the past several years, media reports and articles by policy and U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) professionals have suggested that the IC is held in increasingly lower regard by some decisionmakers—and also by some in the general public—and that predictions made by IC professionals have had variable success in influencing decisionmakers. The authors of this report explored whether and to what degree trust in intelligence predictions and national estimates has degraded over time and what internal and external factors might be drivers of any perceived or real changes in the relationship between policymakers and the IC. The degree of perceived bias in intelligence estimates is highly dependent on the presidential administration in power. Also, policymakers most frequently introduce bias in intelligence assessments from a desire to minimize the appearance of dissent, while the IC tends to introduce bias through self-censorship. The research team observed tensions in the relationship between IC professionals and policymakers: The IC has an incentive to elicit positive feedback from policymakers, and there are limited benefits (with regard to both the careers of intelligence professionals and their agencies' budgets) in receiving negative feedback from policymakers. These tensions could create friction between (1) providing objective information and analysis to policymakers and (2) serving policymakers as customers of intelligence.
- Contents:
- Chapter One: Introduction and Approach
- Chapter Two: Literature Review
- Chapter Three: Early Cold War (Before 1981): The Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon Administrations
- Chapter Four: Late Cold War (1981-1993): The Administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush
- Chapter Five: The Clinton Administration (1993-2001)
- Chapter Six: The George W. Bush Administration (2001-2009)
- Chapter Seven: The Obama Administration (2009-2017)
- Chapter Eight: The Trump Administration (2017-2021)
- Chapter Nine: Conclusions and Looking Forward
- Appendix A: Decisionmaker Interview Protocol
- Appendix B: Intelligence Community Member Interview Protocol
- Appendix C: Literature Search Strategy.
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