Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis: Additive Manufacturing

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Gerstein, Daniel M.

Contributor:

Leidy, Erin N.

Language:

English

Other Title:

Emerging Technology and Risk Analysis

Place of Publication:

RAND Corporation 2024

Summary:

Additive manufacturing (AM) or three-dimensional (3D) printing has become technologically mature, accessible, and available and is exponentially proliferating for licit and illicit uses. Complementary technological advancements in materials science, computer-aided design, and artificial intelligence contribute to this growth, and the availability of more 3D printing materials and techniques has enabled more sophisticated use cases. The distributed nature of 3D printing allows the development of purpose-built technologies and decentralized manufacturing, rapid prototyping, and proliferation of basic but tailorable designs. With the lower costs and growing availability of 3D printers, materials, and software, 3D printing will replace some traditional manufacturing, including for illicit purposes. AM permits order-on-demand manufacturing and could make supply chains less global and more localized. Countering proliferation of potentially dangerous products and technologies will shift interdiction efforts from end products and physical technologies to software and intellectual property. Regulations and export control will need to stop proliferation of computer-aided designs for products and counterfeits and of subpar products that could affect consumer safety. AM for legitimate commercial purposes will continue to grow. Additively manufactured components, some with untested and unknown failure rates, will likely be incorporated into end products, potentially resulting in catastrophic failures. The 2013 creation of a 3D printed gun illustrated the potential for illicit use cases to threaten national security. In this report, researchers focus on the commercial use of AM and the risks posed by counterfeiting because of the less visible but significant effects that it could have on economic prosperity and national security.