China : Regaining Growth Momentum after the Pandemic.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Song, Ligang.

Contributor:

Zhou, Yixiao.

Series:

China Update Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

China--Economic conditions--2000-.

China.

China--Economic policy.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (0 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Canberra : ANU Press, 2024.

Summary:

The theme of the 2024 China Update book is China: Regaining Growth Momentum after the Pandemic. It discusses some of the challenges and policy issues that are being watched with keen interest by decision-makers and markets alike.

Contents:

Intro

List of contributors

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Figures and map

Figure 1.1 China's real GDP growth and predicted growth rate by the CEIC leading indicator

Figure 1.2 Consumer price index, producer price index and Purchasing Managers' Index for China

Figure 1.3 Unemployment rate (per cent)

Figure 1.4 Residential property prices: Tier 1 versus Tier 2 versus Tier 3 cities (month-over-month growth rate)

Figure 1.5 Growth rate of total social financing (year-on-year, per cent)

Figure 1.6 China news-based economic policy uncertainty

Figure 1.7 Change in government expenditure (year-on-year, per cent)

Figure 1.8 Change in fiscal revenue (per cent)

Figure 1.9 Government leverage: Local and central

Figure 1.10 China's current account surpluses

Figure 1.11 Change in exports, by country

Figure 1.12 China's demographic tendency

Figure 1.13a Working-age (15-65 years) population (billion persons)

Figure 1.13b Return on assets in China, 2017-22

Figure 1.14 Total factor productivity of major economies

Figure 1.15 Robot stock in major economies

Figure 2.1 Consumption leading the post-Covid recovery

Figure 2.2 Taking the profits home

Figure 2.3 The great rotation

Figure 2.4 Deep in debt, but less than it appears for corporations

Figure 2.5 Total government revenues in decline

Figure 2.6 More trade tensions to come

Map 3.1 Eastern, central and western provinces of China

Figure 4.1 Headline deficits versus projected real deficits in the general budget

Figure 4.2 Annual quotas of general and special purpose bonds for local governments

Figure 4.3 Trends in general budget revenues and expenditures

Figure 4.4 The local government funding gap

Figure 4.5 Gap-filling transfers from other budgets

Figure 4.6 Transfers as a share of central government revenues*.

Figure 4.7 The rise and fall of revenues and expenditures in the GFB

Figure 4.8 Trends in the SSF budget

Figure 4.9 Fiscal subsidies to the SSF as share of general budget expenditures

Figure 4.10 The growth of government debt

Figure 5.1 Core elements of the adaptive efficiency framework

Figure 5.2 Overall NERI Index of Marketisation

Figure 6.1 Nationwide changes in the overall Business Environment Index, 2006-22

Figure 7.1 Structure of the OSOME

Figure 7.2 Revenue and net profit margins of Chinese MSEs

Figure 7.3 Confidence indices of MSEs by quarter

Figure 7.4 Reasons for UIBOs staying unregistered

Figure 7.5a Operating income recovery of IBOs relative to 2019

Figure 7.5b Operating income of IBOs year-on-year

Figure 7.5c Number of months cash flow can last

Figure 7.6 Proportion of business closures

Figure 7.7a Proportion of IBOs reporting market demand as main source of pressure

Figure 7.7b Proportion of IBOs reporting cost as main source of pressure

Figure 7.8a The proportion of groups reporting variable costs as a source of pressure (for example, raw materials)

Figure 7.8b The proportion of groups reporting fixed costs as a source of pressure (for example, rent)

Figure 7.9 Percentage change in household consumption: Unregistered individuals fall more than registered individuals

Figure 7.10 Proportion of different expectations of IBOs for business revenue in the subsequent quarter

Figure 7.11a The proportion of groups reporting policy uncertainty pressure

Figure 7.11b The proportion of groups reporting being a policy beneficiary

Figure 7.12 Educational distribution of China's flexible employment population

Figure 8.1 China's new residential property prices, 2011-19 (per cent)

Figure 8.2 Total fertility rate, 2010-20.

Figure 8.3 Housing prices from CREIS, CRIC and their average, 2010-19

Figure 8.4 Sample cities' housing prices, 2019

Figure 8.5 Sample cities' housing price trends, 2010-19

Figure 8.6 Affordable housing area under the residual income approach, 2010-19

Figure 8.7 Comparison between the residual income approach and the price-to-income approach

Figure 8.8 Chinese bank lending interest rates

Figure 8.9 KLS and IV coefficient estimates and confidence intervals for housing affordability

Figure 8.10 p-value for KLS exclusion restriction test

Figure 8.11 The trend of affordable housing area, excluding consumption expenditure

Figure A9.1 Placebo test

Figure 11.1 Analytical framework of the BRI policy system

Figure 11.2 Distribution of BRI policy documents

Figure 11.3 Promulgation form of the BRI policy documents

Figure 11.4 The framework of the BRI policy system in Vision and Actions 2015

Figure 11.5 The framework of the BRI policy system in Vision and Actions 2023

Figure 12.1 African agricultural exports to China (US billion, constant price)

Figure 12.2 Exports of agricultural commodities from Africa to China, 2016 (US million)

Figure 12.3 Value added of Africa-China agricultural exports, 1992-2021 (US billion, constant prices)

Figure 12.4 Value-added proportion of Africa-China agricultural exports (per cent)

Figure 12.5 Real gross output value of African agricultural production, 1991-2016

Figure 12.6 Impact of Chinese demand on African agricultural exports and value added to exports

Figure 12.7 Change in value added of African agricultural exports to China and its composition

Figure 12.8 Various determinants: Composition and degrading effect

Tables

Table 2.1 China: Government targets and outcomes, 2021-24

Table 2.2 Government priorities from the Government Work Report, 2022-24.

Table 2.3 Household income and savings, 2019 (percentage of GDP)

Table 3.1 Variable descriptions

Table 3.2 Results of the estimation of the stochastic frontier growth model

Table 3.3 Results of the estimates of provincial GDP growth efficiency

Table 3.4 Results of the estimation of the regional stochastic frontier growth model

Table 3.5 Results of the estimates of western provinces' GDP growth efficiency

Table 3.6 Results of the estimates of central provinces' GDP growth efficiency

Table 3.7 Results of the estimates of eastern provinces' GDP growth efficiency

Table 4.1 General budget deficits, headline deficits and inter-budget transfers (RMB billion)

Table 4.2 General budget expenditures, main categories (percentage of GDP)

Table 4.3 The four government budgets (percentage of GDP)

Table 5.1 Proxy measures for the core elements of the adaptive efficiency framework

Table 5.2 Descriptive statistics

Table 5.3 Pooled mean group regression results

Table A5.1 The five fields and 24 basic indicators of the NERI Index of Marketisation

Table 6.1 Overall scores and changes in BEICP in each province, 2006-22 (points)

Table 6.2 Overall rankings and changes of BEICP across provinces in China, 2006-22

Table 6.3 Nationwide changes in the Business Environment Index across eight aspects in China

Table 6.4 Proportion of enterprise sales revenue used for social security contributions (per cent)

Table 6.5 Operational status of sample enterprises during the survey period (single choice)

Table 6.6 Reasons for operational challenges faced by enterprises (multiple choice)

Table 6.7 Specific impact of the pandemic and related prevention measures on enterprises during the survey period

Table 6.8 Changes in business environment of SOEs and NSOEs, 2012-22.

Table 6.9 Comparison of business environment between SOEs and NSOEs, by aspect, 2022

Table 6.10 Changes in business environment for enterprises of different size, 2012-22

Table 6.11 Business Environment Index scores for enterprises of different size, 2022

Table A6.1 Composition of provincial Business Environment Index, 2022

Table 7.1 Flexibility of UIBOs: Employment characteristics

Table 7.2 Flexibility of UIBOs: Market entry

Table 8.1a Summary statistics of covariates at the city level: Analysis of total fertility rate

Table 8.1b Summary statistics of covariates at the city level: Analysis of total fertility rate (continuous)

Table 8.2 Comparison of affordable residential area for households, by city

Table 8.3 Housing affordability and total fertility rate: OLS and fixed-effects approach

Table 8.4 Housing affordability and total fertility rate: IV estimates

Table 8.5 Relaxation of the instrument independent of the error term

Table 8.6 Relaxation of the exclusion restriction

Table 8.7 No consumption expenditure

Table 8.8 Housing price-to-income ratio and total fertility rate

Table A8.1 Summary statistics of calculating a housing affordability index (RMB)

Table A8.2 Potential omitted variable

Table 9.1 Summary statistics

Table 9.2 Balancing checks of treatment and control groups

Table 9.3 The impacts of the CRNIP on maternal LFP

Table 9.4 Heterogeneity analysis of the impact of the CRNIP on LFP

Table 9.5 Time savings from free lunches

Table 9.6 Employment options

Table 9.7 Heterogeneity analysis of the impact of the CRNIP on off-farm employment

Table 9.8 Heterogeneity analysis of the impact of the CRNIP on informal employment

Table A9.1 Descriptive analysis of initial selection criteria

Table A9.2 Descriptive analysis of data from CEPS.

Table 11.1 Overarching policy documents on the BRI.

Notes:

Creative Commons * https://creativecommons.org/licenses/*

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

9781760466787

1760466786

OCLC:

1503842579