Commodity Markets : Evolution, Challenges, and Policies / edited by John Baffes and Peter Nagle.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Baffes, John, editor.

Nagle, Peter (Economist), editor.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Commodity exchanges.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (295 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, [2022]

Summary:

Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives these markets is critical to design policy frameworks that enable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, and the climate change mitigation. This study examines market and policy developments for all commodity groups over the past century.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title Page

Copyright Page

Summary of Contents

Table of Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Authors

Executive Summary

Abbreviations

Overview

Motivation

Main findings and policy challenges

Synopsis

Future research directions

References

Chapter 1 The Evolution of Commodity Markets over the Past Century

Introduction

Energy

Metals

Agriculture supply and demand

Agricultural policies

Conclusion

Chapter 2 Commodity Demand: Drivers, Outlook, and Implications

Classifying the determinants of commodity demand

Modeling commodity demand

Conclusions and policy implications

Chapter 3 The Nature and Drivers of Commodity Price Cycles

Explaining commodity price variability: Transitory versus permanent components

What have been the main drivers of common cycles in commodity prices?

Annex 3A: Decomposing commodity prices into cycles and long-term trends

Annex 3B: FAVAR: Methodology

Chapter 4 Causes and Consequences of Industrial Commodity Price Shocks

EMDEs' reliance on commodities

Sources of metal price fluctuations

Macroeconomic impact of metal price shocks

Conclusion and policy implications

Annex 4A: Stylized facts: Data

Annex 4B: SVAR: Methodology and data

Annex 4C: SVAR: Robustness tests

Annex 4D: Local projection estimation: Methodology and data

Boxes

1.1 Comparing the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity markets with the effects of earlier shocks

1.2 Industrialization of China and commodity demand in historical context

1.3 The development of price benchmarking in commodity markets

1.4 The rise and collapse of international supply management

2.1 Urbanization and commodity demand.

2.2 Substitution among commodities: Reversible and permanent shifts

2.3 The energy transition: Causes and prospects

3.1 Evolution of commodity cycles

3.2 Commodity price comovement and the impact of COVID-19

Figures

O.1 Overview

O.2 Real prices of key commodities

O.3 Policy improvements in recent years

O.4 Evolution of commodity markets

O.5 Commodity demand

O.6 Evolution of commodity price cycles

O.7 Causes and consequences of industrial commodity price shocks

1.1 Energy markets

1.2 Crude oil: Historical developments

1.3 Crude oil: Developments since 2000

1.4 Coal

B1.1.1 Market responses to price shocks

B1.1.2 Effects of price shocks on production and consumption

1.5 Natural gas

1.6 Nuclear and renewables

1.7 Drivers of metal prices since 1900

1.8 Real metal prices

1.9 Production of metals since 1900

B1.2.1 Changes in the composition and intensity of industrial commodity demand

B1.2.2 Commodity demand during major industrialization periods

B1.2.3 Consumption of industrial commodities per capita and income per capita

1.10 Consumption of metals since 1900

1.11 Real agricultural commodity prices since 1900

1.12 Yield trends in AEs and EMDEs for selected food commodities

1.13 Production and consumption shares: Food commodities

1.14 Production and consumption shares: Export commodities

1.15 Demand for agricultural commodities

B1.4.1 Prices of commodities subjected to supply management schemes after World War II

B1.4.2 Impact of collapse of supply management schemes on commodity prices

1.16 Developments since 2000

2.1 Changes in commodity demand

2.2 Changing shares of consumption of industrial commodities

2.3 Population and commodity demand

2.4 Income and commodity demand

2.5 Intensity of commodity demand

B2.1.1 Urban population trends.

B2.1.2 Urban population share and population density

B2.1.3 Urban populations and transportation-related energy demand in the United States

2.6 Drivers of commodity demand: Technology, innovation, and policies

B2.2.1 Historical episodes of substitution

2.7 Income elasticity estimates

2.8 Future determinants of commodity demand

B2.3.1 The energy transition and its drivers

B2.3.2 Challenges to the energy transition

B2.3.3 Speed and implications of the energy transition

3.1 Real commodity price indexes

B3.1.1 Commodity prices and global recessions

3.2 Commodity price decomposition

3.3 Contributions of global shocks to commodity prices

B3.2.1 Global commodity prices

B3.2.2 Commodity prices around global recessions and downturns

3.4 Contributions of global shocks to commodity prices

4.1 Oil and base metal prices

4.2 Copper use

4.3 Resource reliance of oil and base metal exporters

4.4 Geographic concentration of oil and base metal production and consumption

4.5 China's role in oil and base metal markets

4.6 Shocks to oil and base metal price growth

4.7 Impact of demand shocks on oil and base metal prices

4.8 Impact of supply shocks on oil and base metal price growth

4.9 Contribution of shocks to commodity price variability and oil price growth

4.10 Contribution of shocks to base metal price growth

4.11 Oil and metal price shocks

4.12 Impact of oil price shocks on EMDE output growth

4.13 Impact of metal price shocks on EMDE output growth

4.14 Impact of copper price shocks on EMDE output growth

4C.1 IRFs for demand shocks with different proxies of economic activity

4C.2 IRFs for supply shocks with different proxies of economic activity

4C.3 IRFs for demand and supply shocks to economic activity on oil price growth.

4C.4 FEVDs using different proxies of economic activity

Tables

B1.4.1 Nonoil commodity management schemes

2.1 Parameter estimates

2.2 Literature review of income elasticities

2.3 Literature review of urbanization and commodity demand

3A.1 Real commodity price decomposition

4A.1 Commodity exporters

4B.1 Sign restrictions on impulse responses

4B.2 Comparison of the estimation framework

4B.3 Impulse responses.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Description based on print version record.

Includes bibliographical references.

Other Format:

Print version: Baffes, John Commodity Markets

ISBN:

9781464819124

1464819122

OCLC:

1356575572

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-1911-7