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Denial Without Disaster-- Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold Vol. 4, Imagining Escalation Pathways to Chinese Nuclear First Use Via Analytic Strategic Theory, Historical Case Studies, and an Original Analytic Framework / EDWARD GEIST, NATHAN BEAUCHAMP-MUSTAFAGA, DAHLIA ANNE GOLDFELD, NINA MILLER, SHAWN COCHRAN, JEFF HAGEN, DAVID R. FRELINGER, CINDY ZHENG, WILLIAM KIM, ELLIOT JI, ALEXIS DALE-HUANG.
Van Pelt Library U263 .D465359 2024
Available
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Geist, Edward
- Series:
- Research report (Rand Corporation) ; A2312-4
- Report ; A2312-4
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Nuclear warfare--United States--Prevention.
- Nuclear warfare.
- Escalation (Military science).
- Conflict management.
- Air defenses--United States.
- Air defenses.
- Military planning--United States.
- Military planning.
- Taiwan--Defenses.
- Taiwan.
- United States--Foreign relations--China.
- United States.
- China--Foreign relations--United States.
- China.
- United States--Foreign relations--Taiwan.
- Taiwan--Foreign relations--United States.
- China--Foreign relations--Taiwan.
- Taiwan--Foreign relations--China.
- Geopolitical Strategic Competition.
- Major Combat Operations.
- Military Strategy.
- Nuclear Weapons and Warfare.
- United States Air Force.
- United States Department of Defense.
- Local Subjects:
- Geopolitical Strategic Competition.
- Major Combat Operations.
- Military Strategy.
- Nuclear Weapons and Warfare.
- Taiwan.
- United States Air Force.
- United States Department of Defense.
- Physical Description:
- ix, 136 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm
- Other Title:
- Denial Without Disaster--Keeping a United States-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold
- Imagining Escalation Pathways to Chinese Nuclear First Use Via Analytic Strategic Theory, Historical Case Studies, and an Original Analytic Framework
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2024
- Summary:
- Rising tensions between Washington and Beijing, coupled with China's ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal, have stoked anxieties about a possible military conflict between the two countries, especially over Taiwan. As the United States considers the prospect of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, the U.S. military must be prepared for the risks of nuclear escalation inherent in great-power conflict. This report is one in a series of reports exploring how U.S. joint long-range strike, especially the U.S. Air Force's bomber force, could adapt to better balance military operational effectiveness, force survivability, and escalation management to achieve desired military and political objectives without triggering catastrophic escalation, specifically Chinese nuclear first use. This report explores potential escalation pathways that involve U.S. conventional long-range strike and end with Chinese nuclear first use. The authors employ analytic strategic theory and historical case studies informed by operational analysis as part of a larger project with a mixed-methods approach. Building on the tradition of analytic strategic theory cultivated at RAND since the 1950s and examples from history, the authors draw on the operational analysis of joint long-range strike and their understanding of the Chinese nuclear first use drivers presented in Volumes 2 and 3 of this report series to develop an original framework to analyze prospective pathways to nuclear escalation in a U.S.-China conventional conflict and identify implications for U.S. joint long-range strike.
- Contents:
- CHAPTER 1: Introduction
- CHAPTER 2: Identifying Possible Nuclear Use Logics Using Strategic Theory
- CHAPTER 3: Analytic Framework for Assessing Prospective Nuclear Escalation
- CHAPTER 4: Operational Use Escalation Pathways and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 5: Desperation and Retaliation Escalation Pathways and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 6: Perceiving and Misperceiving Escalation Pathways and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 7: Entanglement Escalation Pathways and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 8: Accidental Escalation Pathways and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 9: Escalation Pathways Involving Third-Party Actors and Implications for Long-Range Strike
- CHAPTER 10: Key Lessons and Operational Implications of the Escalation Pathways
- CHAPTER 11: Conclusions
- APPENDIX: Historical Case Studies
- Notes:
- Title from PDF document (title page; viewed November 18, 2024)
- "Prepared for the Department of the Air Force"
- "RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE"
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 121-136)
- Description based on electronic resource
- ISBN:
- 1977413579
- 9781977413574
- OCLC:
- 1473255988
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