Any happy returns : structural changes and super cycles in markets.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Oppenheimer, Peter C.

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource (387 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Newark : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2024.

Summary:

"Clear and well-written, and can be seen as a helpful primer on a wide range of issues independent of its main theses" - The Society of Professional Economists - Reading Room "An invaluable read for economic history buffs, the book also offers hints on how to invest wisely that will appeal to other readers too." - Financial Times 'An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.' In Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns. The author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also find: An introduction to the history of cycles and structural 'Super Cycles', and what has driven them. A detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era. The specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation. Oppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities. An invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, Any Happy Returns is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.

Contents:

Cover

Title Page

Copyright Page

Contents

Preface

Acknowledgements

About the Author

Chapter 1 An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends

Repeating Cycles

The Social and Political Cycle

The Business Cycle

Super Cycles in Financial Markets

Psychology and Financial Market Super Cycles

Part I Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles

Chapter 2 Equity Cycles and Their Drivers

The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle

1. Despair

2. Hope

3. Growth

4. Optimism

The Drivers of the Four Phases

The Cycle and Bear Markets

Identifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market

Valuations and the Market Inflection

Growth and the Market Inflection

Combining Growth and Valuation as a Signal

Inflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection

Combining Growth and Interest Rates

Chapter 3 Super Cycles and Their Drivers

Super Cycles in Economic Activity

The Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s

Super Cycles in Inflation

Super Cycles in Interest Rates

Super Cycles and Government Debt

Super Cycles in Inequality

Super Cycles in Equities

1. 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom

2. 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle

3. 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates

1. 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns

2. 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles

Part II Analysing Post-War Super Cycles

Chapter 4 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom

International Agreements and Falling Risk Premia

Strong Economic Growth

Technological Innovation

Low and Stable Real Interest Rates

A Boom in World Trade

A Baby Boom

The Consumer and Credit Boom

All-Consuming Consumerism

Chapter 5 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns

A Lost Decade for Investors

The Bubble Before the Bust

High Interest Rates and Low Growth.

The Collapse of Bretton Woods

Social Unrest and Strikes

Collapsing Trade, Increased Protectionism and Regulation

Increased Public Spending, Lower Margins

The End of the Downturn

Chapter 6 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle

1. The Great Moderation

2. Disinflation and a Lower Cost of Capital

European Interest Rate Convergence

Monetary Policy and the 'Fed Put'

3. Supply-Side Reforms (Including Deregulation and Privatisation)

Tax Reforms

Deregulation and Privatisation

4. The End of the Soviet Union (Lower Geopolitical Risk)

5. Globalisation and Cooperation

Technology and the Labour Market

6. The Impact of China and India

7. Bubbles and Financial Innovation

The Japan Bubble and the Tech Bubble

Chapter 7 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles

The Bursting of the Technology Bubble

The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

Leverage and Financial Innovation

The Decline in Long-Term Growth Expectations

The Rise in the Equity Risk Premium

The Negative Correlation Between Bonds and Equities

Chapter 8 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates

1. Weak Growth but High Equity Returns

The Aftershock of the Financial Crisis

2. The Era of Free Money

The Collapse in Government Bond Yields

3. Low Volatility

4. Rising Equity Valuations

5. Technology and the Outperformance of Growth versus Value

The Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value

6. The Outperformance of the United States Over the Rest of the World

Zero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets

Chapter 9 The Pandemic and the Return of 'Fat and Flat'

Pandemic Pandemonium

The Pandemic Shock

Another Tech Bubble

The Medicine Worked

The Pandemic and Inflation

From Disinflation to Reflation

Getting Real - The Shift Higher in the Real Cost of Capital

The Golden Rules Resurface.

Sector Leadership and the Rotation Towards Value

Part III The Post-Modern Cycle

Chapter 10 The Post-Modern Cycle

Structural Shifts and Opportunities

Differences from the Modern Cycle

1. A Rise in the Cost of Capital

The Re-emergence of Inflation

2. A Slowdown in Trend Growth

3. A Shift from Globalisation to Regionalisation

4. A Rise in the Cost of Labour and Commodities

Post-Pandemic Reversal

The Consequences and Investment Implications

AI and the Labour Market

5. An Increase in Government Spending and Debt

The Rise in Regulation and Industrial Policy

Energy Transition Spending to Increase

6. A Rise in Capital and Infrastructure Spending

7. Changing Demographics

Ageing Populations and Deficits

Ageing Populations and New Markets

8. An Increase in Geopolitical Tensions and the Multipolar World

Chapter 11 The Post-Modern Cycle and Technology

Characteristics of Technology Revolutions

Exuberance, Speculation and Bubbles

The Dominance Effects

The Emergence of Secondary Technologies

Can Technology Remain the Biggest Sector?

Can the Current Group of Dominant Technology Companies Remain Leaders?

Why Newer Technologies May Enhance Productivity

Weak Productivity in the Internet World

From 'Nice to Have' to 'Need to Have'

Productivity and the Impact of AI

The PEARLs Framework for AI and Technology

The Pioneers

The Enablers

The Adaptors

The Reformers

The Laggards

Chapter 12 The Post-Modern Cycle: Opportunities in the 'Old Economy'

Opportunities in the 'Old Economy'

Defence Spending

Infrastructure Spending

Green Spending

Government Policy and Spending

Commodities Spending

How Investment Markets Can Help Fund the Capex Boom

The Future of Jobs

Don't Forget the Power of Nostalgia

On Your Bike.

Chapter 13 Summary and Conclusions

Cycles

Super Cycles

The Post-Modern Cycle

References

Suggested Reading

Index

EULA.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Other Format:

Print version: Oppenheimer, Peter C. Any Happy Returns

ISBN:

9781394210367

1394210361

OCLC:

1416747258