Hinge points : an inside look at North Korea's nuclear program / Siegfried S. Hecker and Elliot A. Serbin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hecker, Siegfried S., author.

Serbin, Elliot A., author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Nuclear weapons--Korea (North).

Nuclear weapons.

Korea (North)--Foreign relations--United States.

Korea (North).

United States--Foreign relations--Korea (North).

United States.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (405 pages)

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Stanford, California : Stanford University Press, [2023]

System Details:

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

Summary:

North Korea remains a puzzle to Americans. It is difficult for the general reader to assess the real danger North Korea and its current enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Un, pose. How did North Korea, one of the poorest and most isolated countries in the world in the crosshairs of every U.S. administration during the past 30 years, progress from no nuclear weapons in 2001 to a threatening arsenal of 30 to 50 weapons in 2021? Hinge Points posits that the conventional wisdom that America's good faith diplomatic efforts were circumvented by the North's repeated violations of diplomatic agreements is neither true nor helpful. The book takes a different look at the problem, one of critical introspection that combines rigorous analysis of political and technical developments. Based on his visits to North Korea and an in-depth analysis of the political and technical developments, Hecker argues that decisions should have been based on technically informed risk/benefit analysis that sought to manage the risks as best as possible, instead of trying to drive them to zero. Hinge Points reviews common-mode failures of the three administrations, including a needlessly heavy reliance on Beijing, ineffective utilization of sanctions as a policy tool, the lack of a holistic approach to peace on the Korean Peninsula, and the failure to properly prioritize and recognize the seriousness of the North Korean nuclear threat. The book describes the political landscapes in the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations that led to "hinge points," and provides detailed assessments of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs at those times to demonstrate how Washington's response missed the mark, leading to the crisis we face today.

Contents:

Intro

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Contents

Preface

1. Introduction

2. Nuclear Background

3. The State of Play Prior to January 2004

4. "Would You Like to See Our Product?"

5. Disastrous Consequences of Bolton's Hammer

6. Back to North Korea: "No LWR Till Pigs Fly"

7. Kim Jong Il: Buying Time

8. "Tell America It Worked. DPRK Is Filled with Pride"

9. 2007: Back to the Negotiating Table

10. 2007 and 2008 Visits: Back to Yongbyon to Confirm Disablement

11. 2008: Almost There, but It All Falls Apart

figures follow page

12. 2009 Visit: "You Don't Know How Bad It Will Get"

13. 2009 and 2010: Clenching the Fist, Not Reaching for Obama's Outstretched Hand

14. 2010 Visit: "Tomorrow, You Will Have a Bigger Surprise"

15. November 2010 to April 2012: Deal Blows Up, Along with Rocket

16. "Does the U.S. Blow This Up Over One Stupid Rocket Launch?"

17. From Strategic Patience to Benign Neglect

18. The "Fire and Fury" of 2017

19. From the Olympics to Singapore

20. The Train Wreck in Hanoi

21. Closing Observations: Hinge Points and Missteps

Epilogue

Acknowledgments

Index

About the Authors.

Notes:

Includes index.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781503634473

1503634477

OCLC:

1353269590