Glaciers of the Himalayas : Climate Change, Black Carbon, and Regional Resilience / Muthukumara Mani.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Mani, Muthukumara.

Series:

World Bank e-Library.

South Asia Development Forum

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Black Carbon.

Brahmaputra Basin.

Climate Change.

Ganges Basin.

Glacier Melt.

Glaciers.

HKHK Region.

Indus Basin.

Runoff.

Snow Melt.

South Asia.

Water Resources.

Local Subjects:

Black Carbon.

Brahmaputra Basin.

Climate Change.

Ganges Basin.

Glacier Melt.

Glaciers.

HKHK Region.

Indus Basin.

Runoff.

Snow Melt.

South Asia.

Water Resources.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (134 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Other Title:

Glaciers of the Himalayas

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2021.

System Details:

data file

Summary:

Melting glaciers and the loss of seasonal snow pose significant risks to the stability of water resources in South Asia. The 55,000 glaciers in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKHK) mountain ranges store more freshwater than any region outside of the North and South Poles. Their ice reserves feed into three major river basins in South Asia-the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra-that are home to 750 million people. One major regional driver of the accelerating glacier melt is climate change, which is altering the patterns of temperature and precipitation. A second driver may be deposits of anthropogenic black carbon (BC), which increase the glaciers' absorption of solar radiation and raise air temperatures. BC is generated by human activity both inside and outside of South Asia, and policy actions taken by the South Asian countries themselves may meaningfully reduce it. Glaciers of the Himalayas: Climate Change, Black Carbon, and Regional Resilience investigates the extent to which the BC reduction policies of South Asian countries may affect glacier formation and melt within the context of a changing global climate. It assesses the relative impact of each source of black carbon on snow and glacier dynamics. The authors simulate how BC emissions interact with projected climate scenarios. They also estimate the extent to which these glacial processes affect water resources in downstream areas of these river basins and present scenarios until 2040. Their policy recommendations include the following: Full implementation of current BC emissions policies can significantly reduce BC deposition in the region; additional reductions can be realized by enacting and implementing new policies that are economically and technically feasible. Improving the efficiency of brick kilns could be key to managing BC, and modest up-front investments could pay off quickly. Cleaner cookstoves and cleaner fuels can help to reduce BC and improve local air quality. Improving institutions for basin-based water management and using price signals are essential elements of more efficient water management. Careful management of hydropower and storage resources will require developers to factor in changing water flows and consider planning for large storage projects to stabilize water availability. Regional cooperation and the exchange of information can be an effective transboundary solution, helping countries to manage glaciers and related natural assets collaboratively. New policies are needed to reverse trends like the melting of glaciers. Success will require an active, agile cooperation between researchers and policy makers. To support an open dialogue, the model developed and used in this book is an open-source, state-of-the-art model that is available for others to use and improve on.

Contents:

Front Cover

Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgments

About the Editor

Abbreviations

Overview

References

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Glaciers in South Asia

Economic Importance

Glacial Change

Implications of Glacial Change

Drivers of Glacial Change in South Asia

Chapter 3 Glaciers and Hydrology in the South Asia Region

Indus River Basin

Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin

Current State of Research on Himalayan Glacial Dynamics and Melt

Knowledge Gaps

Notes

Chapter 4 Data and Methodology

Topography and Glacier Data

Climate Data

Creating the Black Carbon Scenarios

Downscaling Climate in the Himalayas

CCHF Model: Linking Climate, Snow and Glaciers, and Water Resources

Chapter 5 Modeling the Role of Black Carbon in Glacier Melt

Black Carbon and Air Pollution

Black Carbon and Glacier Modeling to Date

Results

Chapter 6 Impacts on Mountain Water Availability

Current HKHK Water Production

Elevation

Sensitivity of Temperature and Precipitation to Greenhouse Gases and Black Carbon

Black Carbon Deposition in the Region

Water Production and Partition in the Region

Summary of Findings

Chapter 7 Conclusion and Implications

Implications of the Findings

The Way Forward

Appendix A Climate Model Selection and Bias Correction

Appendix B Black Carbon Transport and Impacts

Appendix C Downscaling Climate

Appendix D CCHF Calibration and Validation

Appendix E Flood Risk Results

Boxes

Box 2.1 Global Climate Change Modeling

Box 2.2 On Thin Ice: How Cutting Pollution Can Slow Warming and Save Lives

Box 2.3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Weather Patterns and Climate

Figures.

Figure 2.1 Global Cumulative Change in Glacier Mass

Figure 2.2 Estimated Glacier Mass Budget for Central and South Asia, 1960-2010

Figure B2.1.1 Climate Modeling Timeline

Figure B2.1.2 Radiative Forcing Estimates in 2011 Relative to 1750 and Aggregated Uncertainties for the Main Drivers of Climate Change

Figure 2.3 Variation in Monsoon Precipitation and Projections in South Asia, 1960-2050

Figure 4.1 Schematic of the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrologic Framework (CCHF) Modeling Methodology

Figure 4.2 Modular Structure of the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrology Framework

Figure 5.1 Share of Black Carbon and Organic Carbon in Total PM2.5 Mass in Delhi, India

Figure 6.1 Deposition of Black Carbon Used for All Global Climate Models, by Month

Figure 6.2 Total Water Runoff, Rainfall Runoff, and Water Released from Snow Melt and Ice Melt in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region under RCP 4.5 (Standard) Scenario

Figure 6.3 Total Water Runoff, Rainfall Runoff, and Water Released from Snow Melt and Ice Melt as a Result of Aerosols for the RCP 4.5 (Mitigation) Scenario

Maps

Map 1.1 The Indus (Left), Ganges (Center), and Brahmaputra (Right) Basins in South Asia

MAP 2.1 Changes Observed in Glacial Elevation in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, 2003-08

Map 2.2 Historic Temperature Change in South Asia, 1950-2010

Map 2.3 Direction of the Western and Eastern Arms of the Monsoon in India

Map 2.4 Average Annual Monsoon Precipitation in South Asia, 1981-2010

Map 3.1 Average Percentage of Annual Precipitation in South Asia, by Season, 1981-2000

Map 5.3 Total Deposition of Black Carbon between the 15th and 29th of (a) January, (b) April, (c) July, and (d) October in South Asia, 2013

Map 5.4 Sources of Black Carbon Deposition in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Month, 2013.

Map 5.5 In-Domain Contributions to Black Carbon Deposition in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, 2013

Tables

Table 2.1 Glaciers within the Major Basins of the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region

Table B2.1.1 Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

Table 3.1 Characteristics of River Basins in South Asia

Table 4.1 Previous Analyses Related to the Current Research

Table 4.2 Aspects of Climate Modeling

Table 4.3 Process Representations Used in the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrologic Framework (CCHF)

Table 6.1 Water Runoff and Partitioning between Sources in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Basin, during the Reference Period (2000-10)

Table 6.2 Comparison of Runoff in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region across Studies during the Historic Period

Table 6.3 Estimated Runoff and Partitioning between Sources in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Study

Table 6.4 Elevation Characteristics in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Basin

Table 6.5 Water Runoff and Partitioning between Sources in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Basin (RCP 4.5 Standard Scenario)

Table 6.6 Water Runoff and Partitioning between Sources in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush Region, by Basin (RCP 4.5 Mitigation Scenario)

Table C.1 Comparison of Five High-Resolution Daily Climate Products

Table C.2 CCHF Performance during Calibration for Each Climate Product

TABLE C.3 CCHF Performance during Validation for Each Climate Product.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

9781464812569

146481256X

OCLC:

1267762601

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-0099-3