Belt and road economics : opportunities and risks of transport corridors / World Bank.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

World Bank, World

World Bank (Washington, District of Columbia), author.

Series:

World Bank e-Library.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Corruption.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (156 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington : World Bank Group, 2019.

System Details:

data file

Summary:

"China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 to improve connectivity and cooperation on a transcontinental scale. This study, by a team of World Bank Group economists led by Michele Ruta, analyzes the economics of the initiative. It assesses the connectivity gaps between economies along the initiative's corridors, examines the costs and economic effects of the infrastructure improvements proposed under the initiative, and identifies complementary policy reforms and institutions that will support welfare maximization and mitigation of risks for participating economies"-- Provided by publisher.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title

Copyright

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTE ON SCOPE AND TERMINOLOGY

FOREWORD

OVERVIEW. Opportunities and risks of Belt and Road transport corridors

CHAPTER 1. Connectivity, trade, and debt in the Belt and Road corridor economies

1.1 Current trade and foreign direct investment landscape

Trade in goods

Foreign direct investment

Participation in global value chains

Missing trade and FDI

1.2 Infrastructure and policy gaps

Transport and digital connectivity

Policies and institutions

1.3 The BRI's cost and financing

What is the cost of the BRI?

BRI financing

CHAPTER 2. Economic effects of BRI transport infrastructure

2.1 How much will BRI transport infrastructure projects reduce trade costs?

Quantifying the BRI's impact on shipment times and trade costs

Considering a subset of BRI projects

2.2 Impact on trade and foreign investment

Trade

Foreign investment

2.3 Impact on income, welfare, and poverty

Trade effects on aggregate income and welfare

Trade effects on poverty

Effects through foreign investment

Spatially differentiated effects of the BRI

CHAPTER 3. Complementary policies and institutions

3.1 Promoting integration

Trade and real income impact of lowering border delays

Spatial impact of lowering border delays

Tariffs and trade agreements

3.2 Policies and institutions to promote corridor development

Project development

Institutional arrangements

3.3 Promoting private sector participation

Strengthening legal protection of investments

Supporting private sector development

3.4 Promoting inclusiveness

Labor displacement and policies to speed adjustment

Territorial inequality and labor mobility

Other territorial policies

CHAPTER 4. Managing the risks

4.1 Managing fiscal risks.

Fiscal risks

Policies and institutions to manage the risks

4.2 Managing governance risks

Public procurement

Corruption

4.3 Managing environmental and social risks

Direct and indirect environmental risks

Social risks associated with transport sector operations

CHAPTER 5. Shaping the Belt and Road Initiative: Policies and institutions

Policy matrix of BRI reform actions

REFERENCES

FIGURES

Figure 1: The Silk Road Economic Belt and New Maritime Silk Road

Figure 1.1: Share of Belt and Road corridor economies in global exports and growth of corridor economies' exports, by region, 1990-2016

Figure 1.2: Trade integration of Belt and Road corridor economies and the role of China

Figure 1.3: Belt and Road corridor economies' direct investment, by region

Figure 1.4: Foreign direct investment to Belt and Road corridor economies, by source

Figure 1.5: Belt and Road corridor economies' participation in GVCs, by region

Figure 1.6: The centrality of China as a source of foreign value added in Belt and Road corridor economies' gross exports

Figure B1.1.1: Share of Belt and Road corridor economies in China's exports, by type of goods, 2001-17

Figure B1.1.2: Trends in China's outward investment and construction contracts

Figure 1.7: Quality of land infrastructure

Figure 1.8: Transport and logistics services in Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 1.9: Internet users and access to mobile broadband

Figure 1.10: Cost to ship a container to Rotterdam and Shanghai from Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 1.11: Cost to ship a container to neighboring economies, average per region

Figure 1.12: Time to import for Belt and Road corridor economies and the G7

Figure 1.13: Average time to comply with import and export requirements, by BRI corridor.

Figure 1.14: Tariffs and the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indicator in Belt and Road corridor economies and G7 countries, 2016

Figure 1.15: FDI policy in Belt and Road corridor economies, and non-Belt and Road and high-income OECD countries

Figure 1.16: BRI investments in Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 1.17: Bottom-up costs of BRI transport infrastructure investments

Figure 1.18: BRI financing in Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 1.19: General government gross debt

Figure 1.20: Public and publicly guaranteed external debt

Figure 1.21: Debt composition of BRI-recipient low-income developing countries

Figure 2.1: BRI-related transport projects

Figure 2.2: Average reduction in shipping times by economy

Figure 2.3: BRI infrastructure improvements will increase exports (CGE and SGE models)

Figure 2.4: Infrastructure improvements are projected to increase foreign direct investment

Figure 2.5: Infrastructure improvements are projected to increase GDP (CGE and SGE models)

Figure 2.6: The BRI transport network will increase GDP growth through foreign direct investment

Figure 2.7: Spatial coverage of Central Asia used for the analysis

Figure 2.8: Spatial disaggregation of real income growth against direct effects of transport investments at district level

Figure 3.1: Impact of complementary policies on exports (CGE)

Figure 3.2: Impact of complementary policies on income (CGE)

Figure 3.3: Change in real incomes at a district level from reducing border costs and investing in transport infrastructure

Figure B3.2.1: Overall Services Trade Restrictiveness Index of Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure B3.2.2: Services Trade Restrictions Index of Belt and Road corridor economies by sector.

Figure 3.4: Strength of protection of domestic investment laws and international investment agreements in 17 Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 3.5: Strength of investment protection in international investment agreements along selected BRI rail routes

Figure 3.6a: Investor-state dispute cases in 21 Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 3.6b: Rule of Law Index for 21 Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 3.7: Number of days to start a business in Belt and Road corridor economies

Figure 3.8: Barriers to labor mobility exacerbate spatial inequalities, reducing opportunities

Figure 3.9: Impact of BRI transport investments on Almaty

Figure 4.1: Public debt and expected BRI debt financing

Figure 4.2: Projected status of Belt and Road corridor economies in 2023

Figure 4.3: Belt and Road corridor economies where domestic preference provisions exist, by region and type of provision

Figure 4.4: Corruption Perception Index (CPI) scores for Belt and Road corridor economies, 2017

Figure 4.5: Relationship between CPI and Rule of Law Index for 50 Belt and Road corridor economies, 2017

Figure 4.6: BRI road and rail projects -operating, under construction, planned- in relation to biodiversity risks

Figure 4.7: BRI road and rail projects -operating, under construction, or planned- in relation to deforestation risks

Figure B4.2.1: Change in carbon emissions in 2030 with respect to the baseline

TABLES

Table 1.1: Average pre-BRI trading times within and between regions

Table 1.2: Frequency of provision coverage in trade agreements

Table 2.1: Changes in trade among Belt and Road corridor economies (CGE model)

Table 2.2: Changes in sectoral exports from Belt and Road corridor economies, by region (CGE model)

Table 2.3: Impact of the BRI on poverty

Table 2.4: Real income gains by country.

Table 3.1: Impacts of declining transport costs on real incomes

Table 3.2: Institutional functions and arrangements for BRI corridors

Table 3.3: Labor displacement

Table B4.1.1: Cost overruns in selected infrastructure megaprojects

Table 4.1: Definitions and example of corrupt practices in the infrastructure (transport) sector

Table 4.2: Options for mitigating environmental risks

Table 5.1: BRI reform actions

Table B1: Silk Road Economic Belt ("Belt")

Table B2: Maritime Silk Road ("Road")

BOXES

Box 1.1: How old is the BRI?

Box 2.1: The European Union's TEN-T and its extension to Eastern Europe

Box 2.2: Successful BRI projects and the risk of stranded infrastructure

Box 3.1: Reducing trade facilitation hurdles along BRI corridors

Box 3.2: Services trade reform

Box 3.3: The impact of removing subsidies for rail freight

Box 3.4: Transport and information and communications technology synergies

Box 3.5: Successful corridor development-Vietnam National Highway N˚˙5

Box 3.6: Special economic zones in the Belt and Road corridor economies

Box 4.1: The risk of failure of megaprojects

Box 4.2: Impact of BRI transport infrastructure on emissions

Box 4.3: The World Bank Environment and Social Framework

Box 5.1: Key initiatives launched at the 2[sup(nd)] Belt and Road Forum

APPENDIXES

Appendix A. Economies covered by this report

Appendix B. BRI road, rail, and port investments.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781464814655

1464814651

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-1392-4