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On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations / Valerie R. Boctor, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Boctor, Valerie R.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w32406.
- NBER working paper series no. w32406
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2024.
- Summary:
- Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still discernible, for unemployment expectations. The discrepancy in responses is systematically related to sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. The differences shed light on the significance of priming in bins-based inflation density forecasts.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- May 2024.
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