Perspectives on warm conveyor belts : sensitivities to ensemble configuration and the role for forecast error / Moritz Pickl.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Pickl, Moritz, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Forecasting--Methodology.

Forecasting.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xiii, 214 pages)

Place of Publication:

Karlsruhe : KIT Scientific Publishing, 2023.

Summary:

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.

Contents:

Introduction

1

Background and Research Questions

5

Data and Methods

29

The impact of ensemble configuration on rapidly ascending air streams

55

Impacts through stochastic perturbations

105

The role of WCBs for forecast error growth

139

Conclusions

171

Appendix for Chapter3

181

Appendix for Chapter4

183

Appendix for Chapter5

185

Appendix for Chapter6

187

Bibliography

193

Acknowledgements

213

Copyright.

Notes:

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (KIT Scientific Publishing, viewed May 13, 2023).