Futures past : economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century / Ulrich Fritsche, Roman Köster, Laetitia Lenel, editors.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Fritsche, Ulrich, editor.

Köster, Roman, editor.

Lenel, Laetitia, editor.

Series:

Literatur, Kultur, Ökonomie.

Literatur, Kultur, Ökonomie

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic forecasting--Econometric models.

Economic forecasting.

Genre:

History.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (218 pages) : illustrations.

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Berlin : Peter Lang Publishing, 2020.

Language Note:

In English.

Summary:

Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis. Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost its importance. Futures Past considers the history and present state of economic forecasting, giving a fascinating account of the changing practices involved, their origins, records, and their implications. By bringing together economists, historians, and sociologists, this volume offers fresh perspectives on the place of forecasting in modern industrial societies, thereby making a broader claim for greater interdisciplinary cooperation in the history of economics. Provided by publisher

Contents:

Cover

Copyright information

Contents

List of Authors

Introduction

1. A Very Short History of Economic Forecasting

2. The Social Fabrication of Forecasts: Some Aspects

3. This Volume

References

Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting 1

1. Introduction

2. The Historical Record of Economic Forecasting

3. Why Do Forecasters Miss Recessions

4. Nowcasting Recessions

5. Conclusion

Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s-1970s

2. A Tool for "Scientific Marketing": Interwar Consumer Research and Psychological Transfers

3. Consumer Expectations and Decision-Making: George Katona and Wartime Attitude Research

4. Framing the Affluent Society: Consumer Sentiment Surveys as Behavioral Economics

5. Framing and Managing Expectations in the Cold War: More Transatlantic Transfers of Consumer Survey Methodology

6. Conclusion

The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964-1975

1. The Economy as a Separated Sphere

2. Future Perspectives for an Economically Underexplored Country

3. The Motion Borel: Between Planning and Forecasting

4. The Perspektivstudien and the Swiss Economy as a Separated Sphere

5. A Switzerland of 10 Million Inhabitants

The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present

1. Introduction: Monetary Policy and the Problems of 'Knowing the Future'

2. The Temporalities of Modern Central Banking: Using the Future to Escape the Fetters of the Present

3. What 'Futures' Does Future-Oriented Monetary Policy Govern - and How?.

4. Conclusion: Why Standardizing the Future Increases Uncertainties

Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting

1.1. The Field: Economic Forecasters in German-Speaking Countries

2. Interaction and the Future

2.1. Mental Time Traveling and Foretalk

3. Interaction and Economic Forecasting

3.1. Interaction and Econometrics

3.2. Patterns of External Interaction

3.3. Patterns of Internal Interaction

4. Emotion and Scientific Reasoning

4.1. Emotions in Economic Forecasting

4.2. Emotion as Epistemic Resource

The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting 1

2. Shifting the Focus from Outcomes to Processes

3. Data and Material

4. Are Predictions Predictable? Forecasting as a Sequence

5. What Is Updating? The Informational Grounds of Forecasts Revisions

6. Discussion and Conclusion

Appendix A: Forecasts Publication Date

Appendix B: Panel Overview

Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis

2. The Survey

3. Empirical Results

3.1. Responses to Pre-Formulated Statements

3.2. Answers to Free Questions

3.3. Evidence from Probability Models

4. Decoupling of Academia and Macroeconomic Forecasting Camp

References.

Notes:

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode

Description based on: online resource; title from PDF information screen (Peter Lang Publishing, viewed February 18, 2023.).

Access Restriction:

Unrestricted online access