Polling at a crossroads : rethinking modern survey research / Michael A. Bailey, Georgetown University.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bailey, Michael A., 1969- author.

Series:

Methodological tools in the social sciences

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Public opinion polls.

Social surveys--Methodology.

Social surveys.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xx, 269 pages) : digital, PDF file(s).

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, 2024.

Summary:

"Survey research is in a state of crisis. People have become less willing to respond to polls and recent misses in critical elections have undermined the field's credibility. Pollsters have developed many tools for dealing with the new environment, an increasing number of which rely on risky opt-in samples. Virtually all of these tools require that respondents in each demographic category are a representative sample of all people in each demographic category, something that is unlikely to be reliably true. Polling at a Crossroads moves beyond such strong limitations, providing tools that work even when survey respondents are unrepresentative in complex ways. This book provides case studies that show how to avoid underestimating Trump support and how conventional polls exaggerate partisan differences. This book also helps us think in clear and sometimes counterintuitive ways and points toward simple, low-cost changes that can better address contemporary polling challenges." -- Provided by publisher

Contents:

Part I. Polling in context

1. Modern polling: challenges and opportunities

2. The story of polling in 21/2 fiascos

3. Weighting: an appreciation and critique

4. The wild west of contemporary polling

Part II. A framework for modern polling

5. Nonignorable nonresponse

6. Contemporary polling and nonignorable nonresponse

Part III. Fighting nonignorable nonresponse

7. Bounding damage from nonignorable nonresponse

8. Selection models for nonignorable nonresponse

9. Next-generation selection models

10. Randomized response Instruments

11. Putting it together

Part IV. Applications

12. Nonignorable nonresponse in political surveys

13. Nonignorable nonresponse in public health

14. Conclusion

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 29 Feb 2024).

ISBN:

9781108688307

1108688306

9781108697798

1108697798

9781108617789

1108617786