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Anticipating flashpoints with Russia : patterns and drivers / Samuel Charap, Sean M. Zeigler, Irina A. Chindea, Molly Dunigan, Alyssa Demus, John J. Drennan, Walter F. Landgraf III, Jonathan Welch, Grant Johnson, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Nathan Vest, Melissa Shostak.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Charap, Samuel, 1980- author.
- Chindea, Irina A., author.
- Dunigan, Molly, author.
- Demus, Alyssa, author.
- Drennan, John J., author.
- Welch, Jonathan (Project associate), author.
- Vest, Nathan, author.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Russo-Ukrainian War, 2014-.
- South Ossetia War, 2008.
- Abkhazia (Georgia)--History--Uprising, 1992-1993.
- Abkhazia (Georgia).
- Syria--History--Civil War, 2011-.
- Syria.
- Russia (Federation)--Military policy--Case studies.
- Russia (Federation).
- Ukraine--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation).
- Ukraine.
- Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--Ukraine.
- Georgia (Republic)--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation).
- Georgia (Republic).
- Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--Georgia (Republic).
- Tajikistan--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation).
- Tajikistan.
- Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--Tajikistan.
- Syria--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation).
- Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--Syria.
- Tajikistan--Foreign relations.
- Other Title:
- Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia
- Place of Publication:
- RAND Corporation 2023
- Summary:
- Even before Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia had many ongoing and potential disputes with other countries, motivated by a variety of territorial, political, and economic issues. Furthermore, as Moscow has sought to expand its international role, it has increased Russian involvement in civil conflicts, using both overt and covert means. Russian activity in Syria and Libya has raised the prospect that the United States might find itself militarily entangled with Russia in various global hotspots. Therefore, the authors of this report sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints with countries in and near the U.S. Army Europe area of responsibility that could entangle the United States and present distinct military challenges to the U.S. Army. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, the authors identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They then leveraged these findings to derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. The authors also examined two additional potential drivers of conflict not captured in historical data — Russia's use of private military contractors and its operations in the information environment — to see whether either might lead to a flashpoint in the future.
- Contents:
- Russia's Disputes and Conflicts
- Dispute Onset and Escalation: A Qualitative Analysis
- Quantitative Analysis of Militarized Interstate Dispute Onset
- Additional Drivers of Escalation
- Conclusions and Implications for the Army.
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