Quantifying the link between COVID-19, conflict risk, and the global economy

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Johnson, Grant

Contributor:

Galley, Catherine

Hafner, Marco

Zeigler, Sean M.

Language:

English

Place of Publication:

RAND Corporation 2023

Summary:

The COVID-19 pandemic that began in December 2019 was a major global shock whose implications are still playing out. Some pandemic effects manifested immediately via increased mortality rates in numerous countries. The pandemic's longer-term impacts, such as economic fallout and social instability, are also beginning to emerge. While there is a growing consensus that the pandemic has adversely affected many countries' economies and may exacerbate socio-political unrest, understanding the dynamics of this process remains challenging. Our research suggests that COVID-19 will significantly increase the risk of civil conflict in unstable African countries. We estimate this effect will, in turn, have negative global economic repercussions via international trade losses. We estimate that COVID-19 has increased Africa's baseline risk of civil conflicts by roughly six per cent on average — a modest but significant increase in conflict risk — although the effect is higher in a handful of countries. Due to trade losses, we estimate that these increased risks may have pernicious effects on the largest global economies. Our model suggests that economic losses due to increased COVID-19-related conflicts could reach nearly .5bn, based on a conservative lower bound to reductions in high-income nations' gross domestic product that only reflects the economic fallout attributed to decreases in trade.