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Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE / Mark Toukan, Stephen Watts, Emily Allendorf, Jeffrey Martini, Karen M. Sudkamp, Nathan Chandler, Maggie Habib.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Toukan, Mark
- Series:
- Research report (Rand Corporation) ; A2338-3.
- Report ; A2338-3
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- United States. Central Command.
- United States.
- Climatic changes.
- Natural disasters.
- Low-intensity conflicts (Military science).
- War--Forecasting--Methodology.
- War.
- Machine learning.
- Forecasting Methodology.
- Global Climate Change.
- Low-Intensity Conflict.
- Machine Learning.
- Natural Hazards.
- climate change.
- natural disasters.
- Local Subjects:
- Forecasting Methodology.
- Global Climate Change.
- Low-Intensity Conflict.
- Machine Learning.
- Natural Hazards.
- Physical Description:
- ix, 31 pages : illustrations, maps ; 28 cm
- Other Title:
- Conflict Projections in United States Central Command
- Place of Publication:
- [S.l.] : RAND CORPORATION, 2024.
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2023
- Summary:
- This report addresses how climate change could affect the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The report begins with an examination of how the current literature characterizes the relationship between climate change and the incidence of conflict. The report then presents conflict projections out to 2070 for the AOR at the provincial level. The projections are made on the basis of a machine learning framework that uses historical data to train and validate a forecasting model. The projections incorporate anticipated changes in temperature and levels of precipitation, although these climate factors are used to complement other known drivers of conflict, such as an area's political and economic development. This is followed by an analysis of why the strength of the relationship between climate change and future conflict could be underestimated by the consensus in the field and the modeling in this report. The report ends with a modeling excursion that shows how drought could increase conflict risk by affecting economic growth. The purpose of this research is to support CENTCOM leadership and planners and their interagency partners to prepare for a future security environment that is affected by climate change. Understanding the frequency of future conflict in the AOR, as well as the marginal increase that is owed to climate change as a threat multiplier, will enable the U.S. government to better prepare for this future. This report is the third in a series focused on climate change and the security environment.
- Contents:
- Chapter One: The Impact of Climate Change on Conflict
- Chapter Two: Forecasts of Future Internal Conflict
- Chapter Three: Uncertainty over Climate Risk
- Chapter Four: Conclusion.
- Notes:
- Title from PDF document (title page; viewed December 1, 2023)
- "RAND NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE"
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-31)
- Description from electronic resource
- Local Notes:
- Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Class of 1878 Fund.
- ISBN:
- 1977412467
- 9781977412461
- OCLC:
- 1411613641
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