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Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending / Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, Camelia Minoiu.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Correa, Ricardo.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31860.
- NBER working paper series no. w31860
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.
- Summary:
- This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- November 2023.
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