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Technology and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Patents with Worker-Level Data / Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D.W. Schmidt, Bryan Seegmiller.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Kogan, Leonid.
- Series:
- Working Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research) no. w31846.
- NBER working paper series no. w31846
- Language:
- English
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource: illustrations (black and white);
- Place of Publication:
- Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2023.
- Summary:
- We develop measures of labor-saving and labor-augmenting technology exposure using textual analysis of patents and job tasks. Using US administrative data, we show that both measures negatively predict earnings growth of individual incumbent workers. While labor-saving technologies predict earnings declines and higher likelihood of job loss for all workers, labor-augmenting technologies primarily predict losses for older or highly-paid workers. However, we find positive effects of labor-augmenting technologies on occupation-level employment and wage bills. A model featuring labor-saving and labor-augmenting technologies with vintage-specific human capital quantitatively matches these patterns. We extend our analysis to predict the effect of AI on earnings.
- Notes:
- Print version record
- November 2023.
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