Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability / edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Alho, Juha, editor.

Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 1959- editor.

Lassila, Jukka, editor.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Population forecasting--Europe--Statistical methods.

Population forecasting.

Demography--Europe--Mathematical models.

Demography.

Population forecasting--Europe--Methodology.

Fiscal policy--Europe--Econometric models.

Fiscal policy.

Human services--Finance--Forecasting.

Human services.

Europe--Population--Mathematical models.

Europe.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xvi, 282 pages) : digital, PDF file(s).

Other Title:

Uncertain Demographics & Fiscal Sustainability

Place of Publication:

Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2008.

Summary:

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Contents:

Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila

Part I: Uncertain demographics

Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho

Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman

Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar

Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment

Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale

Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen

Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn

Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin

Part III: Enhancing sustainability

Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann

Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen

Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others]

Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer

Part IV: Extensions

Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho

Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen

Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen

A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale

Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén.

Notes:

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

1-107-18300-6

0-511-38426-2

0-511-38712-1

0-511-49339-8

9786611254759

0-511-38811-X

1-281-25475-4

0-511-38609-5

0-511-38245-6

0-511-38028-3

OCLC:

808678301