Predicting and controlling disease / Marcus Hutber.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Hutber, Marcus, author.

Series:

Public health in the 21st century series.

Public Health in the 21st Century

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Communicable diseases--Prevention.

Communicable diseases.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (128 p.)

Place of Publication:

New York : Nova Biomedical, 2015.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This book has primarily been aimed at epidemiologists working with empirical data for both human and veterinary diseases. The final paragraph of this preface is probably the most important paragraph of the book, and if epidemiologists or healthcare or veterinary administrators are converted to the concept outlined in the last paragraph, then the book will have served a useful purpose: twenty-five years of epidemiological research culminated in the concept described in this paragraph. This book introduces second generation epidemiological modelling. Second generation modelling uses directly mea

Contents:

""PREDICTING AND CONTROLLING DISEASE""; ""PREDICTING AND CONTROLLING DISEASE""; ""LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA""; ""CONTENTS""; ""Preface""; ""Glossary""; ""Section A: Predicting Disease Spread""; ""Chapter 1: Predicting the Future with Epidemiological Models""; ""1.1. Introduction""; ""1.2. Creating a Disease Model""; ""1.3. Initial Approach via a Stochastic APRISM Simulation Model""; ""1.4. Matrices""; ""1.5. Probability Matrix and State Vector""; ""1.6. State-Transition Technique""; ""1.7. Population Matrix""; ""1.8. Vaccinal Programme""; ""1.9. R0 and ECR""

""1.10. Model Description""""1.11. Non-Zero Elements of the Probability Matrix""; ""1.12. Zero Elements of the Probability Matrix""; ""1.13. Notation""; ""1.14. Stochasticism and Transitions""; ""1.15. Group Segregations or Divisions""; ""1.16. Simplification""; ""1.17. Model Parameters""; ""1.18. Disease Group Populations at Time t0""; ""1.19. Immunity Levels""; ""1.20. Waning Immunity""; ""1.21. Measurable Parameters for ECR""; ""1.22. Pathogen Challenge""; ""1.23. Pathogen Excretion""; ""1.24. Contact Rate""; ""1.25. Segregation""; ""1.26. Areas of Reception and Transmissibility""

""1.27. Serotype""""1.28. Time Interval""; ""1.29. Incubation Period and Vaccination""; ""1.30. Carriers""; ""1.31. Model Complexity""; ""1.32. Modelling with Vectors""; ""1.33. Vector-Transition Technique""; ""1.34. Determination of the Vector Transitions""; ""1.35. Dynamic Contact Rate""; ""1.36. Vaccinal Boost""; ""1.37. Disease Group Populations at Time t0""; ""1.38. Partial Vaccination""; ""1.39. Segregations in the Vector Model""; ""1.40. First Generation Modelling Software""; ""1.41. The Use of Serological Data""; ""Chapter 2: Second Generation Modelling""; ""2.1. Introduction""

""2.2. Development of Biomodels: Analysis of Field Data""""2.3. Vaccinal Control: Relevant Factors""; ""2.4. Vaccinal Period""; ""2.5. Post-Outbreak Vaccination""; ""2.6. Vaccinal Lag""; ""2.7. Rate of Vaccinal Boost""; ""2.8. Incubator Individuals""; ""2.9. Successful Immunization""; ""2.10. Contact Spread""; ""2.11. Nakheel 1994 Outbreak""; ""2.12. Conclusions from the Field Data""; ""2.13. Biomodel Factors""; ""2.14. Measuring ECR""; ""2.15. Validation""; ""2.16. Summary of Parameters""; ""2.17. Model Output""; ""2.18. Outbreak Duration""; ""2.19. PoPv Period""; ""2.20. PcPv and ECR""

""2.21. PcPv and PoPv""""2.22. Use of the Model""; ""2.23. Vaccination and Removal of Infected Individuals""; ""2.24. Multiple Vaccinations""; ""2.25. Rising Pathogen Challenge""; ""2.26. Population Protection""; ""2.27. Sensitivity Analysis on the Nakheel (1994) Outbreak Simulation""; ""2.28. Biofactors""; ""2.29. Summary [Q&As]""; ""Section B: Biofactors and Biomodels""; ""Chapter 3: Directly Measurable Factors -Subclinical Disease""; ""3.1. Subclinical Disease Spread""; ""3.2. Contingency Planning""; ""3.3. Source of Infection""; ""3.4. Identifying Subclinical Disease""

""3.5. Differential Control""

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

1-63463-043-2

OCLC:

900887560