Operational unpredictability and deterrence : evaluating options for complicating adversary decisionmaking / Miranda Priebe, Angela O'Mahony, Bryan Frederick, Alyssa Demus, Bonny Lin, Michelle Grisé, Derek Eaton, Abby Doll.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Priebe, Miranda, author.

O'Mahony, Angela, author.

Frederick, Bryan A., author.

Demus, Alyssa, author.

Lin, Bonny, author.

Grisé, Michelle, author.

Eaton, Derek, 1963- author.

Doll, Abby, author.

Contributor:

Arroyo Center.

Rand Corporation.

United States. Army.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Deterrence (Strategy).

Military policy--Decision making.

Military policy.

Operational art (Military science)--Evaluation.

Operational art (Military science).

Diplomatic relations.

United States--Military policy.

United States.

United States--Foreign relations--China.

United States--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation).

China.

Russia (Federation).

Other Title:

Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2021

Summary:

The 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy instructed the U.S. military to become more operationally unpredictable and suggested that doing so would help the United States deter attacks on U.S. partners. The authors of this report propose a definition of U.S. operational unpredictability—adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight; develop four potential approaches for increasing U.S. operational unpredictability and deterring attacks on U.S. allies and partners; and assess how the four approaches could affect U.S. relations with Russia and China. They also examine two Cold War–era cases in which the United States sought to be more operationally unpredictable. The authors find that increasing adversaries' perceptions of U.S. operational unpredictability may be possible if the United States has detailed information about their operational analysis and decisionmaking processes. The most promising way to increase U.S. operational unpredictability is to publicize new U.S. capabilities and demonstrate that they give the United States multiple options for achieving its key objectives. However, increasing U.S. operational unpredictability may be costly and, in some cases, involve negative side effects (e.g., reducing U.S. military effectiveness and increasing China's and Russia's threat perceptions). The authors recommend weighing the potential costs and effectiveness of these approaches against more traditional approaches to deterring U.S. adversaries.

Contents:

Introduction

Key Concepts and Methodology for Generating Options for Enhancing U.S. Operational Unpredictability

Approach 1: Create Irregular Deployment Patterns

Approach 2: Reveal or Demonstrate New Capabilities

Approach 3: Bluff About U.S. Ability to Conduct Multiple COAs

Approach 4: Repeatedly Reveal Covert Capabilities

Findings and Recommendations

Appendix A: Test of Approach 2: Autumn Forge 1975

Appendix B: Test of Approach 2: Ocean Venture 81.