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Russia, NATO, and Black Sea security / Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Flanagan, Stephen J., author.
- Binnendijk, Anika, author.
- Chindea, Irina A., author.
- Costello, Katherine, author.
- Kirkwood, Geoffrey, author.
- Massicot, Dara, author.
- Reach, Clint, author.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- International relations.
- Politics and government.
- Strategic aspects of individual places.
- Black Sea Region--Politics and government--21st century.
- Black Sea Region.
- Black Sea Region--Relations--Russia (Federation).
- Black Sea Region--Strategic aspects.
- Russia (Federation).
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
- Rand Corporation.
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2020
- Summary:
- The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. The region experienced two decades of simmering conflicts even before Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russia has used military force against countries in the region four times since 2008. The Kremlin is seeking to establish a sphere of privileged influence over countries in the region and limit their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures while enhancing Russia's regime stability and improving military capabilities for homeland defense and wider power projection into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Despite this instability and conflict, U.S. and European officials and analysts have not given nearly as much attention to the region's security challenges as they have to those in Northern Europe. In this report, the authors first assess how Russia is employing a variety of nonmilitary and military instruments to advance its goals. They then consider how the three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies (Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey) and five NATO partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) in the Black Sea region perceive and are responding to Russia's activities and where those countries' interests align and diverge. Finally, the authors identify possible elements of a Western strategy to protect mutual interests, counter Russian malign influence and aggression, and foster regional stability.
- Contents:
- Introduction / Stephen J. Flanagan
- The Black Sea Region in Russia's Worldview / Stephen J. Flanagan and the Project Team
- Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force / Geoffrey Kirkwood and Dara Massicot
- The Military Role in Russia's Black Sea Strategy / Clint Reach
- Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture / Anika Binnendijk and Katherine Costello
- Western Partners on the Black Sea's Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova / Irina A. Chindea
- The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security / Stephen J. Flanagan, Geoffrey Kirkwood, and the Project Team
- Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy / Stephen J. Flanagan.
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