Star wars : a case study of marginal cost analysis and weapon system technology / George L. Donohue.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Donohue, George L.

Contributor:

Rand Corporation.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Strategic Defense Initiative.

Space warfare.

Ballistic missile defenses--United States--Costs.

Ballistic missile defenses.

United States--Military policy.

United States.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (iii, 51 pages) : illustrations, maps

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, 1994.

Summary:

This report presents a case study of how marginal-cost analysis can be used to influence investment decisions, not only in deciding whether to procure a major weapon system, but also how to invest R & D dollars for maximum potential leverage in the long run. The case involves the strategic defense system that the United States examined in the mid-1980s, following President Reagan's "Star Wars" speech of March 1983. The analysis presented here addresses the relative costs to the defender and the attacker in a race in which attackers added re-entry vehicles and defenders added interceptors. The initial results, based on the technology necessary for near-term deployments (by the year 2004), were very unfavorable. Subsequent analysis considered a variety of plausible technological breakthroughs and highlighted the potential value of what came to be called "brilliant pebbles," although great uncertainty remained about whether a favorable marginal cost ratio could be obtained. While not a complete policy analysis, the study is an important example of systems analysis: it affected policy at the time by tempering the claims of strategic defense enthusiasts and channeling R & D and architecture studies in fruitful directions.