Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Connable, Ben

Contributor:

Atler, Anthony

Demus, Alyssa

Doll, Abby

Mackenzie, William

Massicot, Dara

Povlock, Matthew

Reach, Clint

Skrabala, Lauren

Language:

English

Other Title:

Russia's Limit of Advance

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2020

Summary:

By the time it invaded Crimea in 2014, Russia seemed to have regained a significant portion of the military power it lost after the fall of the Soviet Union, reemerging as a perceived threat to democracy. But how capable is Russia of deploying and sustaining ground combat forces farther from its borders? An analysis of notional ground deployment scenarios constructed from real-world, open-source data, along with a review of historical cases spanning the Soviet and post-Soviet eras, reveals strengths and limitations of Russia's military infrastructure. In fact, despite Russia's status as a reemerging global military power, its ground force deployment capability is strong only near its western border and within range of its air defenses. Although it poses a credible threat to Eastern Europe, its ability to deploy ground combat units drops off sharply as geographic distance increases. Limited forces and transportation assets, a lack of international support, and an insufficient ability to sustain its deployed forces also prevent Russia from regaining its Soviet-era deployment capacity. This research was aided by a detailed order of battle for Russian ground forces and a specially designed calculator, which help advance understanding of the factors that stress Russia's ability to deploy forces and project power locally and globally. A companion report, Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios, presents more detail on the context and characteristics of the notional scenarios that underpin this research.